Kenyans from all walks of life are commemorating the first anniversary of the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Many have taken time to celebrate the life of a man who touched the nation in deeply personal ways. Raila Odinga continues to shape Kenya’s politics even in death. His absence has sent the political class back to the drawing board. The political vacuum left by his departure has been felt across the country.
In the last year, a lot was at stake inside ODM, the party Raila steered for 20 years. Competing factions grappled with new intrigues in his absence. Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga has retained control of the mainstream ODM, while Nairobi counterpart Edwin Sifuna has chipped away at portions of the party’s support base. This raises questions about who inherits Mr Odinga’s formidable political support base as the country heads into 2027.
Opinion polls have suggested that most of Raila’s supporters have shifted towards Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi camp. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Mr Odinga’s support base has settled comfortably in President William Ruto’s political basket. The united opposition should look elsewhere. The mood on the ground during Ruto’s recent tour of Luo Nyanza confirmed this shift.
The visit proved that the broad-based government has made significant inroads into a region that has historically been an opposition bastion. For Luo Nyanza’s sceptical voters, the question is less about old loyalties and more about what the government can deliver. Much as Ruto needs ODM, Raila’s supporters need the government too. The President is better positioned to advance many of the ideas and development priorities that could transform the Lake Region.
For ODM, maintaining its working relationship with Ruto and his UDA offers the clearest path towards delivering on the aspirations of its supporters. The President’s Nyanza tour from September 13 to 17 took him through Kisumu, Siaya, Migori and Homa Bay counties, where he inspected, launched and commissioned a range of projects. In Kisumu, he commissioned the Lake Victoria Water and Sanitation Project and inspected road works and other infrastructure.
For the first time since independence in 1963, Luo Nyanza is witnessing the rollout of development projects on a scale that would have been difficult to imagine in previous administrations. The region is no longer being treated as subordinate to other places like Mt Kenya or the Rift Valley. Throughout his tour, Ruto urged residents to judge him by his development record. The overall truth is that Nyanza is now a beneficiary of projects and key appointments.
ODM must look beyond 2027 for a credible path to the presidency, potentially building better towards 2032 after Ruto completes his second term. For now, as Kenyans commemorate Raila Odinga's first anniversary, ODM should honour him by staying the course and supporting Ruto to the end. Let this occasion end the scepticism about the Luo nation’s political future.
Key points
- ODM should support President William Ruto to honour Raila Odinga's legacy.
- Raila Odinga's support base has shifted to President William Ruto's political basket.
- ODM must look beyond 2027 for a credible path to the presidency.
