The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is set to stage a high-stakes rally in Nairobi, choosing Jacaranda Grounds, the same venue where Senator Edwin Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi brigade recently held a massive gathering. This move is seen as an attempt by ODM to reassert its authority in the city, where Sifuna's growing influence threatens to upset the party's traditional dominance. The rally, scheduled for Saturday, will be a crucial test of ODM's mobilization capabilities.
The ODM party has intensified its mobilization efforts across Nairobi, erecting massive billboards and deploying grassroots teams to drum up support. Party officials have particularly targeted populous Eastlands, where door-to-door campaigns are underway to mobilise supporters for the meeting. Langata MP Phelix Odiwuor, after inspecting the grounds, confirmed that all is set for the meeting, stating that it will be massive and that all roads lead to Jacaranda.
However, Nairobi ODM chairman George Aladwa dismissed suggestions that the party has organised the rally to counter Sifuna's political influence. Aladwa insisted that the meeting is part of the party's wider strategy to consolidate its political base ahead of the 2027 elections. The Makadara MP emphasized that ODM aims to retain its current seats and add more, stressing that the party is not looking to compare its strength with anyone.
The rally comes at a critical time, with the 2027 elections approaching and the political landscape in Nairobi undergoing significant changes. Sifuna's growing influence, coupled with his association with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, has complicated ODM's calculations. The three leaders are emerging as a formidable political force capable of challenging ODM's grip on the capital.
Political analyst Martin Andati warned that ODM faces an uphill task retaining its dominance without Raila Odinga, whose personal appeal transcended ethnic and party affiliations. Andati argued that Sifuna, Gachagua, and Kalonzo could emerge as the biggest beneficiaries of the changing political landscape. ODM's troubles have been compounded by its growing cooperation with President William Ruto's UDA, a development that has alienated sections of its traditional strongholds.
In 2022, Raila defeated Ruto in Nairobi by 767,395 votes against 561,775, and ODM captured eight of Nairobi's 17 parliamentary seats, alongside the Senate and Woman Representative positions. However, those numbers could change dramatically in 2027. ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga insisted that the party remains strong enough to defend its territory, stating that all seats in Nairobi belong to ODM.
Despite the challenges, Wanga expressed confidence that ODM will retain its seats and even win more parliamentary seats than it currently holds. However, Raila's death and the subsequent division in ODM and Azimio Coalition are threatening the party's fortunes. Sifuna has left the party, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino is now positioning himself for the Nairobi governorship, potentially complicating ODM's electoral strategy.
Key points
- ODM is staging a high-stakes rally in Nairobi to prove its political might amid growing influence of Senator Edwin Sifuna and his allies.
- The rally is seen as an attempt by ODM to reassert its authority in the city, where Sifuna's growing influence threatens to upset the party's traditional dominance.
- The outcome of the rally could offer an early indication of who commands the political loyalty of Nairobi residents ahead of the 2027 elections.
