A section of ODM leaders, led by Deputy Party leader Simba Arati, are pushing for a conditional arrangement, demanding a 50-50 sharing of government between the ruling UDA Party and ODM, should the current broad-based arrangement win the 2027 polls. They also want ODM to secure the Deputy President position, arguing that the region cannot simply deliver its votes while remaining on the margins of power. This group wants ODM's traditional political bases, including Nyanza, Nairobi, Western, and Coast regions, to be ring-fenced for the party.
Arati's sentiments were echoed by National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed, who recently said that the running mate slot was now the party's condition for staying in the broad-based arrangement. ODM has floated several names for the slot, including Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Mining Cabinet Secretary Ali Hassan Joho, and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga. These demands are aimed at convincing supporters who will demand to know how they benefit in the arrangement.
However, another group of leaders, including Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi, Nyando MP Jared Okelo, and Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, are rejecting the idea of placing conditions on Ruto's support. They argue that the President has already demonstrated goodwill towards Nyanza through development projects and his decision to accommodate leaders from the region in government. They believe that unconditional support is necessary to maintain national stability and guarantee long-term development for the region.
Rongo MP Paul Abuor cautioned against pushing for rigid conditions that could create unnecessary mistrust and disrupt the ongoing development projects. He emphasized that the broad-based government has already delivered immense development and key leadership roles to the people of Nyanza. Abuor urged ODM to offer unconditional support to President Ruto, saying that true power is not won through hostile ultimatums, but through a unified partnership.
Cabinet secretaries John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi also pushed for unconditional support, saying that Ruto is the only President who has recognised the Luo community and transformed the region. They believe that ODM should support Ruto's re-election bid without conditions, citing his efforts to develop the region and promote national stability.
The debate within ODM highlights the challenges of building a wider political coalition beyond traditional support bases. An unconditional endorsement from sections of Raila's backyard would strengthen his efforts to build a national coalition, but demands for a formal power-sharing arrangement could force his camp to negotiate over positions and political territory before the 2027 contest.
Senate Deputy Minority Whip and Migori Senator Eddy Oketch said that ODM will negotiate on conditions which must be met by their broad-based partner. He emphasised that a 50-50 share of government, the Deputy President position, and respect for ODM zones are the bare minimum requirements for the party to continue supporting Ruto's administration.
Key points
- ODM leaders are divided over whether to support President Ruto's 2027 re-election bid with or without conditions.
- A section of ODM leaders want a 50-50 sharing of government and the Deputy President position in exchange for their support.
- Another group of leaders believe that unconditional support is necessary to maintain national stability and guarantee long-term development for the region.
