The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing significant challenges ahead of its coalition talks with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The party's traditional bases have been infiltrated by UDA, and internal conflicts have weakened its bargaining power. ODM's decision to rally behind Ruto's re-election bid without finalizing the terms of their coalition agreement has been criticized by political analysts. They argue that the party should have agreed on conditions of cooperation first to avoid the current predicament.
ODM's troubles began after Raila Odinga's death in October 2025, which led to splits and infighting within the party. Individual ODM leaders have made commitments that undermine the party's official negotiating position, further weakening its bargaining power. President Ruto and his allies have aggressively recruited grassroots leaders in ODM bases, making significant inroads through development projects without relying on ODM leaders. This has exposed ODM's soft underbelly ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Various camps have emerged within ODM, with some elected leaders leaning towards President Ruto and offering unconditional support for his re-election. ODM leaders have attended public meetings with senior government officials and UDA politicians, contradicting the party's official position. Fears that ODM may not secure its interests in the next government have led to public demands for a written coalition agreement between the party and UDA. However, President Ruto and his allies have not commented on the matter.
ODM is facing a major split on whether to secure a written agreement or rely on President Ruto's goodwill. The party's bargaining power is also at risk due to its influential voices, such as Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Beatrice Askul, who are part of Ruto's Cabinet. These leaders' competing ambitions and succession battles have complicated ODM's path to structured negotiations. Some leaders, including Oparanya and Hassan Joho, are angling for the running mate slot, while Mbadi is preparing for the top seat in 2032.
ODM Leader Oburu Oginga has warned against the party going into talks with UDA from a weaker position. He urged ODM leaders to speak with one voice and guard their solidarity. Oginga also cautioned against engaging in 2032 succession battles, which could distract the party from the 2027 polls. He emphasized that the party's strength lies in its solidarity and that they must prioritize securing a resounding victory in 2027.
Some ODM leaders, including Governor Gladys Wanga and National Assembly Leader of Minority Junet Mohamed, are pushing for a written agreement. Mohamed stated that ODM and UDA will have a properly documented coalition government. ODM Deputy Leader Simba Arati said the party should set conditions for any cooperation with UDA. However, some leaders, including Internal Security Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, have argued that ODM should back President Ruto without conditions.
The debate within ODM has sparked concerns about the party's ability to secure its interests in the next government. US-based university lecturer Prof David Monda noted that the Linda Mwananchi faction, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, has stolen the thunder from Oginga's camp. The narrative shaping up seems to favor Sifuna, with Gen Zs identifying with him. ODM's dilemma has significant implications for its future and its ability to negotiate with UDA.
Key points
- ODM's internal conflicts and UDA's inroads in traditional bases have weakened its bargaining power.
- The party is divided on whether to secure a written coalition agreement or rely on President Ruto's goodwill.
- ODM leaders are pushing for a written agreement to secure the party's interests in the next government.
