The Federal Government of Nigeria has welcomed Fitch Ratings' decision to revise the country's credit rating outlook from Stable to Positive. This move reflects progress in economic reforms, adjustments in the foreign exchange market, and efforts to strengthen the country's external position. Fitch announced the revision on October 9, retaining Nigeria's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at 'B'. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, issued a statement highlighting the factors that supported the outlook revision.
According to Minister Oyedele, Fitch cited increased foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and improved economic prospects as key factors. Nigeria's gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024. The increase is attributed to more formalized foreign exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher exports, and remittances. This development is seen as a positive indicator of Nigeria's economic stability.
Fitch also projected that Nigeria would record a current account surplus equivalent to 6.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2026. The ratings agency expects Nigeria's real gross domestic product to grow by 4.3 percent in 2026, compared with 4 percent in 2025. Growth is expected to remain above 4 percent in 2027 and 2028, driven mainly by non-oil activities. This projection aligns with the World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which forecast average annual economic growth of 4.4 percent between 2026 and 2028.
Nigeria's economy recorded growth of 4.43 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This figure was higher than the 3.89 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025. On inflation, Fitch projected an average rate of 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half the level recorded in 2024. The NBS reported that Nigeria's headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 percent in August 2026, from 15.43 percent in July.
Fitch also noted developments in Nigeria's oil sector, including crude oil production meeting the country's OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day from May 2026. Minister Oyedele said increased domestic refining was helping to reduce fuel imports and foreign exchange demand. On public finances, Fitch expects Nigeria's tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue relative to the size of the economy. The agency projected that general government debt would average 32 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the median of 56 percent for countries with a 'B' rating.
Despite the positive outlook, Fitch identified persistent challenges, including inflation remaining above levels in peer countries, government revenue being low relative to the size of the economy, and interest payments accounting for a high proportion of government revenue. Minister Oyedele said the federal government would continue implementing reforms aimed at increasing revenue, improving spending efficiency, strengthening debt management, and supporting non-oil economic growth.
The Fitch decision follows other developments in Nigeria's international credit assessments. In May 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's credit rating from 'B-' to 'B'. In August, Moody's revised its outlook on Nigeria to Positive while retaining its 'B3' rating. Minister Oyedele noted that the government's medium-term objective remained to improve Nigeria's credit standing and work towards investment-grade status.
Key points
- Fitch Ratings revises Nigeria's credit rating outlook from Stable to Positive
- Nigeria's economic growth projected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026
- Government to continue implementing reforms to increase revenue and improve spending efficiency
