Dr. Patrick Akhere Ebojele, a columnist, has expressed concerns over Sonala Olumhense's recent intervention on Edo State politics, specifically his comments on Governor Monday Okpebholo's 2.5 million-vote target for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027. Ebojele argues that Olumhense's analysis makes a fundamental mistake by treating a future election as if its outcome has already been determined. This approach, Ebojele claims, disregards the dynamic nature of politics and voter behavior.
Olumhense's argument is based on Edo State's 2023 presidential election results, where Peter Obi received 331,163 votes, and President Tinubu polled 144,471 votes. He claims that achieving a 2.5 million-vote target in 2027 is impossible given these past figures. However, Ebojele counters that this approach is flawed, as it fails to account for changes in voter behavior, political alliances, and government policies. Ebojele emphasizes that voters make new choices based on new circumstances, rendering past election figures irrelevant.
Ebojele also disputes Olumhense's suggestion that Governor Okpebholo did not genuinely win the 2024 Edo State governorship election. He cites the Supreme Court's unanimous affirmation of Okpebholo's election, which followed judgments from the Edo State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal and the Court of Appeal. These courts rejected challenges by petitioners, confirming Okpebholo's victory. Ebojele finds it surprising that Olumhense, despite being abroad, remains unaware of this judicial affirmation.
Furthermore, Ebojele challenges Olumhense's assertion that Governor Okpebholo's 291,667 votes were insignificant. He notes that these votes were sufficient for Okpebholo to win the election, with the APC securing 30,780 votes in Oredo Local Government Area, the stronghold of former Governor Godwin Obaseki. This outcome, Ebojele argues, demonstrates that Edo voters cannot be permanently assigned to one political camp. The July 11, 2026, local government elections also showed APC's strength, with the party winning all 18 chairmanship positions and 192 councillorship seats.
Ebojele agrees that Olumhense can argue that the 2.5 million target is too high or difficult to achieve but stresses that it is not impossible based on past election figures. He clarifies that the target is a political mobilisation goal, not a result, and that voters will ultimately decide whether it is achieved. Ebojele believes that the focus should shift to what Edo voters will consider when casting their ballots in 2027, such as government performance, policies, and personal economic circumstances.
The columnist emphasizes that Governor Okpebholo's performance since November 2024 deserves more scrutiny than personal history or schooling. He encourages political opponents to test Okpebholo's promises and argues that Edo State's 2023 figures, 2024 governorship election, and 2026 local government election each belong to their respective years. The 2027 presidential election outcome will ultimately reveal whether Okpebholo's target was achievable.
Ultimately, Ebojele asserts that the ballot box, not a calculator, should have the final word in determining the outcome of elections. He concludes that Edo State is not a spreadsheet and that voters' decisions will be influenced by various factors, including government performance and policies. The 2027 presidential election will provide the answer to whether Okpebholo's 2.5 million-vote target was realistic.
Key points
- Dr. Patrick Akhere Ebojele criticizes Sonala Olumhense's analysis of Edo State politics.
- Ebojele disputes Olumhense's claims about Governor Monday Okpebholo's 2.5 million-vote target.
- The 2027 presidential election will ultimately determine the validity of Okpebholo's target.
