The NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies has urged Nigeria to shift its economic policy focus from macroeconomic stabilization to accelerating broad-based growth. According to the centre, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) needs to expand by at least 7% by 2030. This call was made in an updated 10-year economic roadmap for Nigeria, published by Nanyang Technological University (NTU). The report, authored by economist Rafiq Raji, noted that major reforms since 2023 had helped stabilize the economy.
The report highlighted that economic growth rose from 1% in 2021 to 4% in 2025, and 4.4% in the second quarter of 2026. However, the pace remained insufficient to meet Nigeria's development needs, particularly amid the continuing cost-of-living crisis. The centre noted that the first phase of reforms, focused largely on stabilization, had substantially been achieved. It urged the government to move immediately to a second phase centred on investment, industrialization, job creation, and higher productivity.
The centre identified fiscal discipline, monetary policy credibility, stronger infrastructure, improved access to finance, and incentives for foreign direct investment as critical to achieving 7% growth. The report warned that reforms, including the floating of the naira, petrol subsidy removal, and electricity tariff liberalization, had imposed significant social costs. Citing World Bank data, it said Nigeria's poverty headcount ratio rose to 61% in 2025, from 40% in 2019.
The report projected that debt servicing would consume about $11.6 billion in 2026, equivalent to roughly half of projected government revenue. The centre urged the government to reduce the budget deficit towards the 3% of GDP ceiling under the Fiscal Responsibility Act and improve transparency in public spending. It also identified unreliable electricity as one of the biggest obstacles to faster growth, estimating that dependable power could add at least 5 percentage points to real GDP growth.
Nigeria has about 215 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but the resource remains inadequately commercialized for domestic power generation. Of 13.6 gigawatts of installed generation capacity in 2026, only about 8.7GW could be wheeled through the national grid, while actual generation peaked at about 5.8GW. The report called for private investment in transmission infrastructure, market-based gas pricing, and cost-reflective electricity tariffs.
The centre also warned that limited access to affordable finance could undermine the growth target. Nigerian banks raised N4.65 trillion between 2024 and 2026 under the recapitalization programme, but the Centre questioned whether the additional capital would sufficiently reach the real economy. It said banks still favour government securities and large corporate borrowers over riskier small and medium-sized enterprises.
The centre recommended credit guarantees, risk-sharing facilities, blended finance, supply-chain finance, and movable-asset lending to expand SME financing. It also urged stronger action against insecurity, poor infrastructure, and weak contract enforcement. The report cited the Dangote refinery as evidence that large-scale private investment, supported by appropriate government incentives, could drive industrialization across agriculture, oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, and electricity.
Key points
- Nigeria needs to accelerate broad-based growth, with real GDP expanding by at least 7% by 2030.
- The country's poverty headcount ratio rose to 61% in 2025, from 40% in 2019.
- Unreliable electricity is one of the biggest obstacles to faster growth, with dependable power potentially adding 5 percentage points to real GDP growth.
