The Nigerian government has set a target to achieve an investment-grade sovereign credit rating by 2030, as part of its efforts to build a $1 trillion economy. According to the Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, this goal will depend on stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, higher productivity, and credible institutions.
Under the National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030, Nigeria's public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 percent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 percent by 2030. Additionally, the Federal Government's debt-service-to-revenue ratio is expected to drop from 62.93 percent to 21.01 percent. The plan also projects a rise in government revenue from 11.15 percent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 percent by 2030.
The NDP 2026–2030 targets an economy approaching $1 trillion in nominal output by 2030, with real GDP growth projected to rise from 4.68 percent in 2026 to 10.34 percent in 2030 and average 7.79 percent over the plan period. Gross capital formation is also expected to reach 40 percent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector accounting for about 72 percent of cumulative investment.
To achieve these targets, Uzoka-Anite identified four critical areas that require sustained reforms: fiscal health and domestic revenue mobilisation; debt sustainability and liability management; economic diversification, investment, and productivity; and institutional strengthening and policy credibility. She emphasized the need for Nigeria to broaden its revenue base, improve tax compliance, and reduce its dependence on volatile oil revenues.
Uzoka-Anite also highlighted the importance of the competitiveness of Nigeria's real sector to its sovereign credit profile, citing agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy, and logistics as key sectors for diversification and productivity growth. She noted that stronger institutions, policy consistency, transparent procurement, and reliable economic data would be essential to investor confidence.
The Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning is institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to monitor key indicators, including growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, debt, investment, and employment. A Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee has also been established to periodically assess the performance of macroeconomic indicators and report to the Economic Management Team.
Founder of DataPro Limited, Mr. Abimbola Adeseyoju, noted that sovereign credit ratings influence the flow of investment, cost of funds, and the ability of countries to finance infrastructure, industrialisation, and sustainable growth. He called for structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and deeper and more transparent capital markets to support Africa's journey towards investment-grade status.
Key points
- Nigeria targets an investment-grade sovereign credit rating by 2030.
- Public debt is projected to decline from 36.07 percent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 percent by 2030.
- The Federal Government's debt-service-to-revenue ratio is expected to drop from 62.93 percent to 21.01 percent.
