President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which indicates that his administration's economic reforms are yielding positive results. The report, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, was released this week. According to Tinubu, the World Bank's findings demonstrate that the reforms have placed the economy on a firmer footing for sustained growth.
The World Bank report highlights several key achievements, including a stabilisation of the poverty rate for the first time since 2019, with expectations of a gradual decline as GDP grows faster than the population. The economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025. Despite the Middle East conflict, the report projects growth to average at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
The report also notes a significant decline in inflation, from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. Although higher global fuel prices have slowed the decline, inflation is expected to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028. Additionally, Nigeria's external position has strengthened, with a current account surplus rising to $12.0bn, or 7.0 per cent of GDP, in H1 2026, up from $8.6bn a year earlier.
The World Bank credits reforms since 2023 with raising federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with states being the largest beneficiaries. States have used the additional resources to increase capital spending by 151 per cent in real terms, mostly on roads, transport, agriculture, energy, and housing. Twenty-nine of 33 states have shifted spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person has risen in all but one state.
President Tinubu attributes the positive results to the administration's difficult decisions to remove petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market, and enforce fiscal discipline. He notes that the findings confirm that these reforms have raised revenues, stabilised the economy, and created fiscal space for all tiers of government. Tinubu assures that the administration will stay the course and redouble focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
The President urges state governments to use their higher revenues more prudently and prioritise projects that improve living standards, health, and education. He commends the Economic Management Team, state governors, and all stakeholders for their cooperation, assuring that "the best is yet to come under the Renewed Hope Agenda 2.0, which will accelerate the delivery of shared prosperity for all Nigerians."
The World Bank report also highlights other positive developments, including an increase in internally generated revenue in real terms in 31 of 35 states, and a reduction in debt-to-GDP ratio in 21 states between 2021 and 2025. Nigeria's overall public debt is expected to fall from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.
Key points
- President Tinubu's administration has implemented economic reforms that have yielded positive results.
- The World Bank report projects Nigeria's economy to grow at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
- The administration will focus on inclusive growth under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
