The cost of an ordinary shopping basket in Nigeria has significantly increased, reflecting the country's economic mood. For instance, a kilogramme of imported rice sold for about N239 in January 2016, but by May 2023, it had risen to N793, a 231 per cent increase. Since May 2023, the price has surged to over N2,255 by October 2025, representing an additional 184 per cent rise. This substantial increase in the cost of living has become a pressing concern for Nigerians.
The rising cost of living has made the economy a central issue in the 2027 election. Nigerians experience government policy most directly through the price of food, petrol, transportation, electricity, rent, and other essentials. The debate over the economy is no longer about the necessity of reforms but whether Nigerians are beginning to experience the benefits of those reforms after bearing their costs for over three years. The government and opposition must now convince voters that their economic policies will improve the lives of Nigerians.
The Tinubu administration has a substantial macroeconomic argument to make, citing a significant slowdown in the pace of price increases. The National Bureau of Statistics reported headline inflation at 15.39 per cent in August 2026, while food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent. The government can also point to improved revenue mobilisation and greater stability in the foreign-exchange market. However, the improvement in inflation rates does not mean that prices have returned to their previous levels.
The gap between the macroeconomic story and the lived experiences of many households in Nigeria is significant. Even though inflation is falling, prices are still high, and many households are struggling to make ends meet. The government must demonstrate how citizens are to be protected from the immediate consequences of harsh reforms. The petrol market provides a clear illustration of this tension, with international crude prices rising substantially above the benchmark used in the 2026 federal budget.
The government has a strong argument against a simplistic return to the old subsidy regime, citing the consumption of public resources and potential for arbitrage and rent-seeking. However, this does not remove the government's obligation to demonstrate how citizens are to be protected from the consequences of reforms. The opposition must also provide convincing explanations of their economic policies, including how they intend to manage the exchange rate, increase domestic production, and create employment.
The disagreements among opposition figures over fuel subsidy illustrate the challenges in developing a comprehensive economic programme. Atiku Abubakar has advocated restoring subsidy, while Peter Obi has taken a different position, arguing that subsidy removal should not simply be reversed. Their differences reflect a wider difficulty within the opposition in developing a cohesive economic policy.
The battle over the economy is crucial in the 2027 election, with the administration presenting reforms as necessary corrections to structural distortions. The opposition will focus on the human cost of these reforms and provide alternative programmes that explain how they intend to manage the economy, increase domestic production, and create employment while maintaining fiscal sustainability. Ultimately, the side that can explain the economics behind their promises more convincingly is likely to gain traction with voters.
Key points
- The economy has become a central issue in the 2027 election in Nigeria.
- The government and opposition must convince voters that their economic policies will improve the lives of Nigerians.
- The battle over the economy will be crucial in the 2027 election.
