Nigeria's total public debt has risen from ₦87.38 trillion in June 2023 to ₦166.79 trillion in June 2026, according to Dele Oye, Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics. This represents a nearly 100% increase in just three years. Oye expressed concerns that the growing debt burden is occurring alongside persistent poverty, with over 140 million Nigerians living below the national poverty line.
The World Bank estimates that about 63% of Nigerians, representing more than 140 million people, will be living below the national poverty line in 2026. Despite improvements in some macroeconomic indicators, the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu have yet to translate into improved living conditions for the majority of Nigerians. Oye noted that the country's experience has exposed a gap between economic stability and shared prosperity.
Oye commended President Tinubu for taking courageous decisions to remove petrol subsidy and liberalize the foreign exchange market, reforms that the organized private sector had advocated for over the years. However, he faulted the sequencing of the policies, arguing that subsidy removal came before the availability of functional refineries, mass transportation alternatives, and adequate social protection measures.
The structure of Nigeria's financial system has also been criticized by Oye, who argued that banks are increasingly attracted to government securities because of their high returns, rather than extending credit to businesses in the productive sectors of the economy. Listed Nigerian banks earned ₦5.93 trillion from investment securities in 2024, with the biggest banks generating ₦3.03 trillion from Treasury bills in the first half of 2025 alone.
Oye described the situation as a structural problem in which government borrowing is competing with private businesses for available funds, limiting access to the financing needed to expand production and create jobs. He also linked the country's rising borrowing to the need for greater transparency and accountability in public finance management.
Total debt servicing in Nigeria increased from ₦7.79 trillion in 2023 to ₦16.26 trillion in 2025, according to the Debt Management Office. This figure could consume 71.7% of the country's revenue, highlighting the need for a more sustainable approach to public finance. Oye emphasized that stability is not prosperity and that the country's economic growth has not translated into meaningful relief for ordinary Nigerians.
Oye concluded that the country's economic reforms have contributed to improvements in some macroeconomic indicators, but the gains have yet to translate into improved living conditions for the majority of Nigerians. He stressed that the poor have been serving as the shock absorbers of the state due to badly sequenced reforms and that a more equitable and sustainable approach to economic development is needed.
Key points
- Nigeria's public debt has nearly doubled in three years, rising from ₦87.38 trillion in June 2023 to ₦166.79 trillion in June 2026.
- Over 140 million Nigerians are living below the national poverty line, despite improvements in some macroeconomic indicators.
- The country's financial system has been criticized for favoring government securities over lending to businesses in the productive sectors of the economy.
