Nigeria's business activity reached a record high in September, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). The Current Business Performance Index rose to 117.8 points, surpassing the previous record of 117.2 points in February. This growth was driven by increased demand, but businesses faced high operating costs, financing constraints, and structural bottlenecks. The NESG's Business Confidence Monitor reported that most confidence sub-indices remained in expansion territory.
The improvement in business activity was not matched by an equally strong performance in business finances. The Financial Results Index slipped into contraction after several months of expansion, underscoring the pressure businesses continue to face despite stronger demand. The NESG's cost indicators, including the Cost of Doing Business and Prices sub-indices, remained deeply below the 100-point neutral threshold at 39.2 and 58 points, respectively. This suggests that businesses are recording higher levels of activity while still operating under severe cost pressures.
Trade emerged as the biggest driver of the September expansion, with its Current Business Performance Index jumping to 128.5 points from 112 points in August and 107.6 points a year earlier. The NESG attributed the strong performance partly to increased trade stockpiling linked to back-to-school shopping and stronger consumer demand. Both wholesale and retail trade benefited from the improvement. Agriculture also strengthened, rising to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in August and 107.3 points a year earlier.
However, the improvement in overall activity was moderated by weaker manufacturing and services performance. Manufacturing's index fell sharply to 108.4 points from 120.4 points in August, although it remained above the 102.5 points recorded in September 2025. Cement and several other manufacturing subsectors weakened during the month. Services remained in expansion but slowed to 107.7 points from 112.4 points in August and 108.5 points a year earlier.
According to the NESG, businesses across the economy continued to face financing constraints, irregular electricity supply, insecurity, infrastructure bottlenecks, and high rental costs. Manufacturers also struggled with raw-material supply challenges. The pressure on investment was particularly significant, as the Investment Index moved into expansion after several months of contraction. This suggests that improved demand is beginning to encourage businesses to increase investment.
Businesses nevertheless remained optimistic about the near-term outlook, with the Future Business Expectation Index standing at 128.9 points in September, only slightly below 129.3 points in August. Trade had the strongest outlook at 192 points, followed by Manufacturing at 151.9 points and non-manufacturing at 148.1 points. Agriculture recorded 134.8 points, while Services posted 123.2 points.
The NESG noted that persistent cost pressures, alongside constraints around finance, electricity, infrastructure, and security, remained major factors weighing on business activity and new investment. The September data presents a mixed picture of Nigeria's private sector: businesses are experiencing stronger demand and record activity, but the improvement is yet to eliminate the cost pressures eroding financial performance.
Key points
- Nigeria's business activity reached a record high in September, driven by strong demand.
- Cost pressures and financing constraints limited financial performance despite the surge in business activity.
- Businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook, with the Future Business Expectation Index standing at 128.9 points in September.
