Nigeria has set a bold target to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030, as outlined in the Renewed Hope Development Plan (2026–2030). This ambitious goal is accompanied by plans to create 21 million new jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty. To achieve this, the country needs to sustain an annual GDP growth rate of 10–12 per cent. Current estimates place Nigeria's GDP between $291 billion and $375 billion, indicating that the economy must roughly triple or quadruple in nominal terms within four years.
Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria is making progress in attracting foreign capital. In the first quarter of 2026, total capital importation into Nigeria hit $10.37 billion, an 83.83 per cent jump from the $5.64 billion recorded in the same period of 2025. However, the composition of this capital reveals a concerning trend. Portfolio investment accounted for $9.86 billion, or 95.09 per cent of the total, while foreign direct investment (FDI) contributed just $135.08 million, or 1.3 per cent.
The majority of capital importation in the first quarter of 2026 went into the banking sector, with $7.55 billion, or 72.79 per cent of the total. In contrast, the production and manufacturing sectors received only $152.27 million. The United Kingdom was the largest source of capital, supplying $5.08 billion, or 49 per cent of the total. This pattern raises questions about the sustainability of Nigeria's growth strategy and its ability to attract capital that can contribute to long-term economic development.
Political economist Adefolarin Olamilekan argues that Nigeria needs to link foreign investment to local value addition and ensure that capital deployment is harmonized with local content. He emphasizes that this approach is not about resisting globalization but about Nigeria asserting its capacity to determine what kind of capital it wants and how its benefits are distributed. Olamilekan suggests that Nigeria needs an investment framework that explicitly links foreign investment to local value addition, Nigerian participation, technology transfer, skills development, job creation, and export capacity.
Olamilekan also stresses the importance of strategic capital management, suggesting that economic policy alone will not be enough to achieve Nigeria's growth ambitions. He calls for major foreign-financed projects to carry measurable Nigerian-content obligations, supplier-development programs, and technology-transfer mechanisms. This approach would enable Nigeria to negotiate with global capital from a position of national interest and ensure that investment translates into productive capacity rather than merely financial returns for investors.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) chief executive, Dr. Muda Yusuf, notes that Nigeria's recent FDI rebound is largely attributed to reforms in the oil and gas sector. However, he also highlights the need for increased FDI into the wider, non-oil economy, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture. These sectors are crucial for job creation, local supply-chain integration, and broader multiplier effects. Yusuf's assessment is consistent with the Q1 2026 capital importation numbers, which show that manufacturing's share remains marginal compared to banking's dominance.
As Nigeria continues to strive for a $1 trillion economy by 2030, experts emphasize the need for structural transformation rather than just a larger GDP figure. This requires a national value-capture framework that ensures investment translates into productive capacity and builds Nigerian productive power. The ongoing coordination between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Ministry of Finance is seen as a positive step towards achieving this goal.
Key points
- Nigeria aims to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030, as outlined in the Renewed Hope Development Plan.
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Nigeria's non-oil economy, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture, has lagged behind other sectors.
- Experts stress the need for Nigeria to link foreign investment to local value addition and strategic capital management to achieve sustainable economic growth.
