Nigeria's agricultural trade balance has returned to deficit after agricultural exports fell by 36 percent year-on-year to N803 billion in the second quarter of 2026. This development has raised fresh concerns over food security and the country's growing reliance on imported food. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, agricultural exports accounted for only three percent of Nigeria's total exports of N27.0 trillion during the quarter.
The decline in agricultural exports represents a 36 percent year-on-year and 32 percent quarter-on-quarter deterioration in agricultural trade performance. This highlights the continued dominance of crude oil and refined petroleum products in Nigeria's export basket, which generated N23.3 trillion in Q2 2026, accounting for about 86 percent of total exports. Non-oil exports, excluding crude oil and petroleum products, stood at only N3.7 trillion, representing about 14 percent of total exports.
The agricultural sector remains central to the Federal Government's economic diversification strategy due to its extensive value chain and potential to generate non-oil export earnings, create jobs, and reduce dependence on imported food. However, the latest trade figures suggest that the sector is yet to fully realize this potential. The leading agricultural export commodities in Q2 were cashew nuts in shell, standard-quality cocoa beans, and sesame seeds.
While agricultural exports weakened, imports moved sharply in the opposite direction. The country's agricultural import bill rose by 45 percent quarter-on-quarter and two percent year-on-year to N1.2 trillion in Q2. Consequently, the agricultural sector recorded a net trade deficit of N400.8 billion, reversing the surplus recorded in the preceding quarter. This reversal points to persistent supply-side weaknesses in domestic agriculture.
The renewed deficit comes amid continuing food-security concerns across the country. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, an estimated 36.3 million Nigerians experienced crisis-level food insecurity or worse during the June-August 2026 lean season, representing about 16.7 percent of the population covered by the assessment. This figure was higher than the more than 30.6 million people estimated to have faced similar conditions during the corresponding period of 2025.
Analysts at Quest MFB and CSL Research said reversing the agricultural trade deficit would require simultaneous interventions across production, processing, storage, and distribution. They called for stronger security in rural areas to enable farmers to return to their farms, alongside greater investment in rural roads, irrigation, and storage infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and improve market access.
The latest trade figures therefore reinforce the need for Nigeria to move beyond agricultural production for domestic consumption towards stronger value chains capable of supporting food security, import substitution, and competitive non-oil exports. Improved access to inputs, affordable financing, and extension services for smallholder farmers would be critical to raising domestic output. Targeted social-protection and nutrition programs would also remain necessary to cushion vulnerable households from elevated food costs.
Key points
- Nigeria's agricultural exports declined 36% year-on-year to N803 billion in Q2 2026.
- The country's agricultural import bill rose by 45% quarter-on-quarter to N1.2 trillion in Q2.
- An estimated 36.3 million Nigerians experienced crisis-level food insecurity or worse during the June-August 2026 lean season.
