The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that Nigeria and other developing countries risk being left behind as global trade and investment rapidly shift towards technology-driven industries. According to Acting UNCTAD Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno, the global investment landscape is undergoing a major transformation, with capital increasingly flowing into artificial intelligence, semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy, and other advanced technologies.
During an official visit to China, Moreno raised concerns about the implications of this shift for developing countries. He noted that strategic sectors accounted for 44% of global greenfield investment in 2025, up from 16% in 2020, with the value of announced projects in these sectors rising from $109 billion to $576 billion over the same period. However, developing economies are receiving only a small share of the new investment, with low- and lower-middle-income countries attracting about 10% of investment in strategic sectors between 2020 and 2025.
Moreno highlighted that countries lacking reliable infrastructure, skilled workers, affordable energy, access to finance, and strong policy frameworks could miss the next phase of industrial development. For Nigeria, the shift presents both an opportunity and a warning. The country has a large consumer market, substantial natural resources, and a growing technology ecosystem, and is seeking to expand digital services, attract foreign investment, and develop value chains around critical minerals and energy.
However, attracting investment into future industries will require more than access to a large market or a low-cost workforce. Countries must develop the infrastructure, technical skills, domestic suppliers, and regulatory systems needed to support sophisticated production. Moreno emphasized that developing countries can no longer compete primarily on the basis of cost, as investment decisions are increasingly influenced by frontier technologies, tariffs, and national investment-screening regimes.
The UNCTAD delegation held meetings with senior Chinese officials, including China International Trade Representative Li Chenggang and Vice Minister of Commerce Ling Ji, to discuss investment, innovation, trade, and industrial development. The discussions highlighted the need for developing countries to make deliberate choices about the industries they want to build, the partnerships they pursue, and the technologies they seek to access.
UNCTAD emphasized that stronger international cooperation would be essential to help developing countries move beyond traditional cost-based competition, build productive capabilities, attract sustainable investment, and secure a meaningful role in the industries of tomorrow. Without urgent investment in skills, power, digital infrastructure, and industrial capacity, the global technology race could deepen existing development gaps rather than narrow them in countries like Nigeria.
Moreno described the shift as “a structural rewiring of the global economy in real time,” warning that its implications extend beyond economics. He added that a country’s position in the semiconductor value chain could shape its strategic standing as much as access to oil or control of a shipping route, and that the decisive arena is now technological, rather than geographic.
Key points
- Developing countries risk being left behind as global trade shifts to tech-driven industries
- Nigeria needs to develop infrastructure, technical skills, and regulatory systems to attract investment in future industries
- Stronger international cooperation is essential to help developing countries build productive capabilities and secure a meaningful role in the industries of tomorrow
