Nigeria's current growth trajectory is insufficient to deliver its target of becoming a $1tn economy by 2030, according to AIESEC Alumni Nigeria. The organisation emphasised that sustained investment, higher productivity, stronger infrastructure, and consistent economic policies are necessary to change the country's trajectory. This warning was given at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture organised by AIESEC Alumni Nigeria in Lagos.
The President and Chairman of the Governing Council, Chartered Institute of Directors Nigeria, Adetunji Oyebanji, presented a paper titled, “One Trillion Dollar Economy: What It Will Take Nigeria to Achieve the Goal?” Oyebanji stated that Nigeria's nominal GDP stood at about $290.79bn in 2025. To reach $1tn, the country would require a compound annual growth rate of about 28.02 per cent between 2026 and 2030.
Oyebanji noted that historical trends showed Nigeria would fall far short of the target if it continued on its current trajectory. He mentioned two methods that gave declining GDP projections, resulting in $223bn and $173bn outcomes in 2030, respectively. Oyebanji stressed that the $1tn ambition required a fundamental shift in the country's economic trajectory rather than business as usual.
The required growth rate represents an exceptionally demanding benchmark, with no historical precedent for Nigeria at its current economic size. Oyebanji outlined an illustrative pathway that would see the economy grow from about $290bn in 2025 to $372bn in 2026, $477bn in 2027, $610bn in 2028, $781bn in 2029, and $1tn in 2030.
Oyebanji emphasised that macroeconomic stability is critical to achieving the $1tn target, as dollar-denominated GDP depends on both real economic expansion and exchange-rate stability. He warned that increases in domestic production could be undermined by currency depreciation. Therefore, attention to both real economic expansion and macroeconomic stability is necessary.
Oyebanji identified three broad phases of economic transformation that Nigeria needs to move through: stabilisation, growth, and shared prosperity. He noted that recent reforms, including foreign exchange market unification, fuel subsidy removal, fiscal consolidation, and expenditure controls, are laying the foundation for greater stability. However, stability alone will not deliver the desired economic transformation.
Other speakers at the lecture, including AIESEC President, Marcel Mba, and the President of NECA, Richard Ayibiowu, emphasised the need for significantly higher growth, investment, productivity, infrastructure, innovation, and stronger institutions to achieve the $1tn ambition. They noted that government, businesses, and citizens have complementary roles to play in achieving this ambition, with a call for consistency, discipline, transparency, and accountability in pursuing reforms.
Key points
- Nigeria requires a compound annual growth rate of about 28.02 per cent between 2026 and 2030 to reach a $1tn economy by 2030.
- The country's current growth trajectory is insufficient to deliver the $1tn economy target.
- Achieving the $1tn economy ambition requires a fundamental shift in Nigeria's economic trajectory.
