Nigeria's stock market has achieved a remarkable 75.5% year-to-date return in dollar terms, making it Africa's best-performing equities market in the first nine months of 2026. According to data compiled across 20 African exchanges, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) outperformed other major markets, including the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, which returned 64.75% in dollar terms over the same period. This strong performance has positioned the NGX ahead of its continental peers as the final quarter of the year begins.
The NGX's impressive performance was driven by a significant increase in market capitalization, which rose by N63.73 trillion, or 64.13%, from N99.376 trillion at the beginning of 2026 to N163.105 trillion as of September 30. The NGX All-Share Index also recorded a substantial gain, climbing by 95,598.64 points, or 61.43%, to 251,211.67 points. This remarkable rally was supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, ongoing economic reforms, firmer oil prices, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and renewed investor confidence.
The appreciation of the naira has further boosted the market's dollar-denominated performance. The naira strengthened by about 6.96% against the dollar, moving from N1,429/$ at the end of 2025 to N1,329.50/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market as of September 30. This has translated into stronger dollar returns for foreign investors, who have benefited from the combination of rising equity prices and naira appreciation.
Despite the impressive nine-month performance, the market has experienced some moderation after its strong first-half performance. According to investment banker and stockbroker Tajudeen Olayinka, the final three months of the period have witnessed some drag on the rally recorded in the first half of 2026. However, Olayinka remains optimistic about the market's outlook for the full year, citing the potential for a post-listing market-wide rally around the Dangote Refinery IPO.
The market's September performance provided further evidence of its resilience, with total market capitalization rising by N5.37 trillion, or 3.4%, month-on-month, from N157.739 trillion. This growth has underscored the market's ability to sustain its momentum, even in the face of potential challenges. As the final quarter of the year begins, investors are eyeing the year-end rally, which could determine whether the market sustains its momentum through the end of 2026.
Other African markets have also recorded significant performances, with the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange ranking third, gaining 55.64% in dollar terms. The BRVM and Ghana Stock Exchange returned 53.16% and 44.23%, respectively. At the other end of the performance table, the Stock Exchange of Mauritius declined 5.63% in dollar terms, while the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell 4.57% during the period under review.
As the year draws to a close, investors are cautiously optimistic about the market's prospects. With the potential for a post-listing rally around the Dangote Refinery IPO, the market may be poised for further growth. However, market analysts are urging caution, noting that the final three months of the year could be crucial in determining the market's overall performance.
Key points
- Nigeria's stock market has emerged as Africa's best-performing equities market in dollar terms, with a 75.5% year-to-date return in the first nine months of 2026.
- The NGX's market capitalization rose by N63.73 trillion, or 64.13%, from N99.376 trillion at the beginning of 2026 to N163.105 trillion as of September 30.
- The naira's appreciation has boosted the market's dollar-denominated performance, translating into stronger dollar returns for foreign investors.
