Nigeria has emerged as the biggest climber in Africa's latest investment risk ranking, rising four places to eighth as improvements in economic and fiscal indicators strengthened its relative position among the continent's investment destinations. According to Bloomberg Economics' 2026 Investment Risk-O-Meter, Nigeria overtook Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Namibia in the latest ranking. The upgrade comes alongside stronger economic growth but a substantial rise in public debt, highlighting the mixed investment picture facing the country.
The improvement in Nigeria's ranking was driven by stronger performance in economic strength, fiscal strength, and external vulnerability, according to Bloomberg. The country's rise was attributed to economic reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu, including changes to the foreign exchange market, petrol pricing, and electricity tariffs. These reforms have been presented by the Federal Government as measures designed to correct long-standing distortions, strengthen public finances, improve market transparency, and attract investment.
Nigeria's improved position comes more than three years after the Tinubu administration began implementing major economic reforms aimed at changing the country's fiscal and monetary framework. Among the most significant measures were the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange market reforms, and changes to electricity tariffs. The reforms have been accompanied by efforts to improve government revenue, strengthen fiscal management, and attract capital into sectors considered critical to economic expansion.
Economic growth has continued to strengthen compared with the period immediately after the reforms began. Nigeria's real GDP growth stood at 3.89 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The Q1 2026 performance, however, was slower than the 4.07 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The latest expansion was supported by improvements across agriculture, industry, and other parts of the non-oil economy.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to real GDP, accounting for 57.73 percent in the first quarter. The growth performance is one of the indicators that has strengthened the case for Nigeria's improving relative position in the Bloomberg assessment. However, Nigeria's improved ranking comes alongside a substantial increase in its public debt stock, creating another dimension for investors assessing the sustainability of the country's economic adjustment.
Data from the Debt Management Office show that total public debt stood at ₦87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023. The figure had risen to ₦159.28 trillion by December 31, 2025. That represents an increase of about ₦71.90 trillion, or 82.3 percent, over the period. The Federal Ministry of Finance has also acknowledged that debt-service costs remain a significant fiscal constraint, despite the government's position that the debt remains sustainable relative to the size of the rebased economy.
For investors, the combination of improving growth indicators and a heavier debt burden means Nigeria's improved ranking does not eliminate the structural issues that have historically affected its investment appeal. The key test will be whether stronger growth, improved external conditions, and fiscal reforms can be sustained while the government manages debt-service pressures, inflation, infrastructure gaps, and the cost of living. Nigeria's four-place climb suggests that some of the country's underlying investment indicators have improved relative to its African peers.
Key points
- Nigeria rose four places to eighth in Bloomberg Economics' 2026 Investment Risk-O-Meter.
- The improvement was driven by stronger performance in economic strength, fiscal strength, and external vulnerability.
- Nigeria's public debt stock increased substantially, rising to ₦159.28 trillion by December 31, 2025.
