The National Flood Early Warning Systems Centre, under Nigeria's Erosion, Flood, and Coastal Zone Management Department, has issued a flood prediction warning for 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The warning, signed by Director Usman Abdullahi Bokani, attributes the heightened risk to heavy rainfall, rising river levels, and saturated soil. This forecast has raised concerns about the potential for avoidable deaths and destruction of property due to a lack of mitigation planning.
The warning covers a period from September 27 to October 10, during which residents in the affected areas are at a high risk of heavy flooding. The department cited increased surface runoff, drainage surcharge, and elevated soil moisture as contributing factors to the flood risk. Communities classified under the critical-risk category are spread across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The authorities have been urged to take proactive measures to minimize the impact of the impending floods.
Vice President Kashim Shettima had directed a shift from reactive response to proactive preparedness in combating flood and other climate-related disasters on June 25. He emphasized that preparedness, coordination, and early action must become the standard practice in governing risk in the country. However, the effectiveness of this directive remains to be seen, as many Nigerians continue to experience the devastating effects of flooding.
Nigeria's urbanisation rate of 5.5 per cent per year, one of the highest in the world, has increased the number of people at risk or vulnerable to flood hazards. A recent heavy rainfall in the Southwest caused flooding on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, from Ogere to the Sagamu interchange. This incident occurred despite warnings from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) about the risk of flash flooding in coastal states.
Flooding has caused significant damage to Nigeria's ecosystem, destroying public utilities and elevating the risk of hunger and malnutrition. The disruption of farmlands and commercial losses for farmers engaged in subsistence farming have further exacerbated the situation. In the past decade, thousands of people have lost their lives to flooding, while millions have been displaced.
The devastating effects of flooding in Nigeria have been well-documented. In 2012, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported that 665 people died in a flood, while the World Bank estimated losses at about $6.7 billion. More than three million people were displaced across the country. The Ecological Fund, established in 1981, aims to pool resources to help mitigate natural disasters.
As the rainy season peaks, Nigerians are experiencing unending stories of anguish due to submerged homes and vehicles in communities and settlements. The authorities responsible for mitigating the impact of floods seem to lack actionable plans to address the situation. With the flood warning in place, it remains to be seen whether the government will take concrete steps to minimize the impact of the impending floods.
Key points
- 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory are at high risk of heavy flooding between September 27 and October 10.
- Nigeria's urbanisation rate of 5.5 per cent per year has increased the number of people vulnerable to flood hazards.
- The 2012 flood resulted in 665 deaths and $6.7 billion in losses, with over three million people displaced.
