A recent study by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection's (MISTRA) Coalitions Barometer has challenged the notion that South Africa's coalition governments are inherently dysfunctional. The research examined around 80 of the 213 municipalities that became hung after the 2021 local government elections, producing approximately 175 administrations. Surprisingly, half of these administrations lasted less than 21 months, but in more than half of the municipalities studied, the party that initially led the government never lost power.
According to Laurance Caromba, MISTRA's lead researcher, the findings suggest that coalition governments may be more resilient than they appear. Caromba expressed surprise at how many coalition administrations had managed to survive, with about a third remaining in place in their original form, while in another third, the core party retained control. This highlights how the most dramatic coalition collapses tend to dominate public attention, often overshadowing the stability of coalitions in rural areas.
The research also reveals that coalition configurations excluding the party with the most seats are more likely to collapse prematurely. However, Caromba stressed that such arrangements are legitimate outcomes of an election if parties can combine to secure at least 50% of the seats in a council. To compensate, parties may need to engage in greater compromise, stronger coalition agreements, or increased transparency.
Governance experts, including Dr. Sam Koma, argue that the MISTRA findings help challenge the idea that coalition arrangements are inherently dysfunctional. Koma pointed to the number of Section 139 interventions in majority-led municipalities, particularly in parts of the North West and Free State, as well as the Eastern Cape. He suggested that majority-led municipalities can sometimes be more dysfunctional and chaotic than those governed through coalitions.
The study also highlights different approaches by the ANC and DA in coalition governments. The ANC has been more willing to allow a smaller coalition partner to take the mayoral position, while the DA tends to prefer leading the government itself. The DA has increasingly moved from government into opposition in hung councils since the 2021 elections, while the ANC has increased its participation in coalition governments while taking the leadership role less frequently.
Coalition politics have also increased the influence of smaller parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which has secured nine mayoralties despite never being the largest member of the relevant coalition government. The PA's ability to influence coalition negotiations reflects the changing balance of power in South African politics. Smaller parties can now wield significant power in determining the outcomes of coalition negotiations.
However, political stability does not necessarily mean better services. Governance experts warn against confusing political stability with effective governance, citing continuing problems with inadequate water provision, sanitation challenges, electricity problems, and deteriorating roads. The MISTRA research focused on the political stability of coalitions, but whether that stability translates into better service delivery requires further analysis.
Key points
- Coalition governments in South Africa may be more resilient than perceived, with about a third of administrations remaining in place in their original form.
- Excluding the party with the most seats in a coalition can make it more vulnerable to collapse.
- Political stability in coalitions does not automatically translate to better municipal services.
