A recent projection by Global InfoAnalytics suggests that Ghana's governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) could see its parliamentary majority reduced by 2028. The research firm's model estimates that the NDC's current 185 seats will fall to 154, while the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) will rise from 88 to 100 seats. This projection was reported by MyJoyOnline and represents Global InfoAnalytics' first parliamentary seat projection specifically built for the 2028 general elections.
Global InfoAnalytics used its Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model to make the projections. This statistical technique combines survey data with demographic and geographic information to estimate outcomes across individual constituencies. The model gives the NDC 55.8 percent of total seats and the NPP 36.2 percent. Despite the projected losses, the NDC is still expected to maintain a parliamentary majority, albeit with a significantly reduced margin compared to its current 185-seat majority.
The projection indicates that 22 constituencies remain unresolved, with 20 classified as "not disclosed" and two as toss-ups. These undisclosed seats represent 7.2 percent of Parliament, while the toss-ups make up another 0.7 percent. The Eastern Region has the highest number of undisclosed constituencies, with five, followed by the Ashanti Region with four. Other regions with undisclosed seats include the Western, Upper East, Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North, and Bono regions.
Global InfoAnalytics noted that voting preferences in the 20 undisclosed constituencies have not been made public, which is why they could not be assigned to either party. The two toss-up constituencies, located in the Ashanti and Bono regions, are considered too close to call. The firm's projections are estimates drawn from its modelling and should not be treated as a definitive forecast of the 2028 parliamentary elections.
The projected shift in the parliamentary balance is likely to be closely watched by both the NDC and NPP as campaigning for the next election cycle gets underway. The NDC's current majority has been significant, but the projection suggests that the NPP may make gains in the 2028 elections. The actual outcome will depend on various factors, including voter turnout and the campaigns of both parties.
The use of the MRP model by Global InfoAnalytics provides a detailed analysis of the projections. By combining survey data with demographic and geographic information, the model can estimate outcomes across individual constituencies. This approach allows for a more nuanced understanding of the projections and the potential shifts in the parliamentary balance.
The projection by Global InfoAnalytics highlights the dynamic nature of Ghana's politics. As the 2028 elections approach, both parties will need to consider the potential shifts in the parliamentary balance and adjust their strategies accordingly. The actual outcome will depend on various factors, including the campaigns of both parties and voter turnout.
Key points
- NDC's parliamentary majority may shrink to 154 seats by 2028.
- NPP may rise to 100 seats by 2028.
- 22 constituencies remain unresolved in the projection.
