The United States Department of Agriculture has forecast that Morocco's wheat production will reach 7.5 million tons in the 2026-2027 season, up from 3.5 million tons in the previous season. This increase is expected to reduce the country's need for imports. According to the department's monthly grain report, Morocco's wheat imports are expected to decline to 3.7 million tons, down from 6.654 million tons in the previous season.
The expected improvement in wheat production is attributed to a recovery from the previous season's low production of 2.46 million tons in 2024-2025. The increase in production is expected to be around 4 million tons compared to the previous season. However, despite this positive forecast, Morocco's wheat consumption is expected to rise to 10.3 million tons in the current season, up from 9.9 million tons in the previous season.
The increase in wheat consumption is around 4% and means that domestic production will not be enough to meet the country's needs. Morocco will still rely on imports to meet its wheat requirements. The country's barley production is also expected to improve, with a forecast of 2.4 million tons, up from 950,000 tons in the previous season.
Morocco's barley imports are expected to decline to 500,000 tons, down from 700,000 tons in the previous season. The country's barley consumption is forecast to reach 2.85 million tons, with domestic production covering around 84% of the market, up from 61% in the previous season.
The North African region is also expected to see an increase in wheat production, with a forecast of 23.1 million tons, up from 17.418 million tons in the previous season. Morocco's expected increase in production accounts for the largest part of the region's expected increase.
However, Morocco's market is still dependent on international developments, particularly with regards to wheat prices. The report noted that wheat export prices have risen, along with a decline in export forecasts from Russia and Ukraine due to transportation constraints.
The 2026-2027 season is showing positive signs for Morocco's wheat production, with improved production and reduced imports expected to meet domestic demand. The country's agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the improved production, but will still rely on imports to meet its needs.
Key points
- Morocco's wheat production is expected to reach 7.5 million tons in the 2026-2027 season.
- The country's wheat imports are expected to decline to 3.7 million tons, down from 6.654 million tons in the previous season.
- Morocco's wheat consumption is expected to rise to 10.3 million tons in the current season.
