The Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), Morocco's central bank, has decided to maintain its key interest rate at 2.25% during its third quarterly meeting of 2026 in Rabat. This decision comes as the bank assesses economic developments both domestically and internationally, while also updating its medium-term projections. The bank cited several external risks, including ongoing conflicts, geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and concerns over energy and food supplies.
According to BAM, Morocco's inflation rate averaged 0.3% during the first eight months of 2026. The central bank expects this rate to rise to 0.7% for the full year and 1.5% in 2027. It also anticipates that underlying inflation will shift from -0.2% in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027, primarily due to the fading impact of lower food prices and relatively high imported inflation.
The central bank has revised its growth forecast for 2026 downward to 4.4%, compared to 4.9% in 2025. It expects growth to further slow down to 2.9% in 2027. In the agricultural sector, the value added is projected to increase by 16% in 2026, supported by an estimated cereal harvest of 93 million quintals. However, this is expected to decline by 7.6% in 2027, assuming an average harvest of 50 million quintals.
Non-agricultural activity in Morocco is anticipated to grow by 3.1% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The energy import bill is expected to rise by 28.4% to MAD 138.1 billion in 2026 before decreasing to MAD 116 billion in 2027. Equipment imports are projected to reach MAD 250.7 billion, with increases of 15.6% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027.
Automobile exports are forecasted to reach MAD 202.2 billion in 2027, while phosphate and derivative exports are expected to rise by 9.7% in 2026 and 12.1% in 2027, reaching MAD 122.6 billion. Travel receipts are anticipated to reach MAD 160 billion, and remittances from Moroccans living abroad are expected to reach MAD 136.3 billion in 2027.
These trends are likely to result in a widening of the current account deficit from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, before narrowing to 3% in 2027. Official reserve assets are expected to reach MAD 502.8 billion by the end of 2026 and MAD 515.3 billion in 2027, covering approximately five and a half months of imports.
The labor market in Morocco showed positive signs in the second quarter of 2026, with the creation of 406,000 jobs year-on-year, according to the HCP's labor force survey. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.5% nationwide, with rates of 11.9% in urban areas and 5.4% in rural areas. The central bank also expects bank credit to the non-financial sector to accelerate from 4.8% in 2025 to 8.1% in 2026 before slowing down to 6.1% in 2027.
Key points
- Morocco's central bank maintains key interest rate at 2.25% amid economic uncertainty.
- The bank revises its 2026 growth forecast downward to 4.4%.
- Morocco's unemployment rate falls to 9.5% in the second quarter of 2026.
