Morocco's national economy demonstrated resilience in the face of prolonged energy shocks, posting a 4.1% annual growth rate in the third quarter of 2026. This growth was largely driven by the agricultural sector, which saw a significant increase of 19.9%, and the services sector, which rose by 3.9%. The services sector's growth was fueled by strong performances in the hospitality and food service industries, as well as non-profit and financial services.
The secondary sector, however, continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace, with a 1.9% year-on-year drop. Industries such as food processing, automotive, and electrical equipment manufacturing showed relative resilience, while textiles, chemicals, rubber manufacturing, and electronics lagged behind. The High Commission for Planning (HCP) also noted that import prices rose more sharply than export prices in Q3 2026, further compressing profit margins and terms of trade.
The volume of exports continued to moderate, increasing by 6.2% in Q3 2026, while import growth slowed, resulting in a reduced negative contribution of external trade to growth, which stood at -1.2 points. On the investment front, companies continued to adjust their spending in response to higher import costs for equipment and construction materials, but infrastructure projects sustained a 6.2% increase in gross capital formation.
Meanwhile, household consumption strengthened by 4.1% in Q3 2026, against a backdrop of slightly lower inflation (-0.3%). The increase in non-food prices (+2.4%), driven by energy costs, was offset by a decline in food prices (-3.6%), particularly for chicken, vegetables, eggs, and olive oil. The HCP also reported that financing conditions remained favorable in Q3 2026, with a 11.1% annual increase in credit to the economy.
The HCP revealed that official reserve assets rose by 19.9%, and net claims on the central government increased by 7.1%, supporting an 11.9% growth in the money supply. However, the banking liquidity deficit widened, prompting Bank Al-Maghrib to increase its financing to banks and maintain its key interest rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive quarter.
On the financial markets, the dirham depreciated by 2.2% against the euro and 3.8% against the dollar. The stock market, as measured by the MASI index, lost 6.8% in Q3 2026, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a new energy shock. Despite this, the market capitalization increased by 4%.
Looking ahead, the HCP forecasts that Morocco's economic activity will continue to expand at a rate of 4.7% in Q4 2026, assuming stable energy prices and the absence of major new shocks. This forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projection of 4.5% growth for Morocco in 2026.
Key points
- Morocco's economy grew by 4.1% in Q3 2026, driven by agriculture and services.
- The secondary sector continued to decline, while household consumption strengthened.
- The HCP forecasts 4.7% growth in Q4 2026, contingent on stable energy prices.
