In a surprise move, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed has joined the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), altering the state's political landscape ahead of the 2027 general election. This development has significant implications for Mohammed's succession plans and his own political ambitions. The governor's decision to move to the APM comes as a surprise, given the quiet contest between the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to woo him. Mohammed's move is tied to two major political ambitions: producing his preferred successor and returning to the Senate after completing his second term as governor.
Mohammed's decision to join the APM is an attempt to break a long-standing pattern in Bauchi politics. Since the return to civil rule in 1999, no sitting governor has successfully handed power to a preferred successor. Former governors, including Ahmadu Adamu Mu'azu and Isa Yuguda, have failed to install their preferred successors or retain power for their camps. Mu'azu, who ruled Bauchi from 1999 to 2007, lost the Bauchi South senatorial seat in 2007 to Mohammed, who contested under the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). Yuguda suffered a similar setback after leaving office, contesting the Bauchi South Senate seat in 2015 but losing to Ali Wakili of the APC.
Mohammed is now attempting to return to the Senate after eight years as governor, seeking the same Bauchi South seat where he defeated Mu'azu in 2007. Political observers believe that history and the strength of opposition parties will test the governor's ambition. A lecturer at the Abubakar Tatari Ali Polytechnic (ATAP), Bauchi, Comrade Abdullahi Yelwa, noted that Mohammed defeated Mu'azu in 2007 despite the former governor's strong political network and record in government. Yelwa argued that Mohammed now faces the additional challenge of producing a successor while also securing his own return to the Senate.
The immediate test for Mohammed is whether his political structure can deliver the APM governorship candidate, Dr Yakubu Adamu. Yelwa questioned whether Yakubu has enough political strength of his own to win the governorship or whether he is largely relying on Mohammed's political structure to deliver the contest for him. According to Yelwa, the APM candidate would need to demonstrate that he has personally committed supporters, rather than relying entirely on the governor's political machinery.
Yelwa acknowledged that Mohammed's administration had executed projects across the state but argued that the governor could still face political resistance due to public dissatisfaction with inflation, compensation for property affected by road projects, and the expectations from people who had hoped to benefit from government contracts. He also argued that some decisions taken by the administration had created political enemies for the governor, adding that opponents had used those grievances to mobilise against him.
One of the biggest challenges to the APM is coming from the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), whose governorship candidate, Senator Shehu Buba Umar, already has a strong political base in the state. Buba currently represents Bauchi South in the Senate, the same seat Mohammed held before becoming governor. He won the seat in 2023 after defeating a PDP candidate. Buba's decision to contest the governorship in 2027 has created an interesting political battle between the two men, particularly given their long-running political disagreements.
The APC, however, is not a minor player in the contest, being led into the 2027 governorship election by former Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar, who governed Bauchi from 2015 to 2019 and is now seeking a return to Government House. Yelwa believes the APC has prospects, and Abubakar's experience and influence could make the contest more challenging for the APM.
Key points
- Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed joins Allied Peoples Movement (APM) ahead of 2027 elections
- Mohammed aims to produce a successor and return to the Senate
- The governor faces challenges from opposition parties, including the APC and PRP
