The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has predicted a hotter and drier summer for Mauritius, with temperatures expected to reach 37°C in some exposed areas. The summer season, which runs from November 1, 2026, to April 30, 2027, is expected to be particularly hot, with the mercury potentially reaching 36°C to 37°C in certain regions. The MMS has also warned that the heat, combined with high humidity and weak winds, could make the days unbearable, especially for vulnerable individuals.
According to the MMS, the coastal areas of Mauritius can expect daytime temperatures to reach around 30°C, while Rodrigues Island may experience temperatures of up to 34°C in coastal areas, with even higher temperatures in more exposed regions. The MMS has also predicted that between December 2026 and March 2027, the heat and humidity could cause significant discomfort, particularly for those who are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.
The MMS has forecast that Mauritius can expect around 1,100 mm of rainfall during the summer, which is only 80% of the usual average. The summer rains are expected to start in the last week of November. In contrast, Rodrigues Island is expected to receive around 930 mm of rainfall, which is 115% of the usual average, meaning the island may experience more rainfall than usual.
Despite the predicted decrease in rainfall, the MMS has warned that intense rainfall is still possible, with Prithiviraj Booneeady, the acting director of MMS, mentioning the possibility of continuous rainfall over three to four days. These episodes could help fill the reservoirs, but they also risk causing flooding in certain areas.
The MMS has also predicted that between five and seven cyclones or tropical storms could form in the southwestern Indian Ocean. However, this does not necessarily mean that all of these cyclones or storms will affect Mauritius or Rodrigues. The region west of Diego Garcia appears to be more favorable for their formation.
The MMS has urged the public to regularly follow weather forecasts and warnings on their website, as the situation can change rapidly. The public is also advised to be aware of the potential dangers of strong rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, mini-tornadoes, and localized flooding. In addition, large waves could affect the coastlines if a cyclone passes near the islands.
The summer season and cyclone season coincide, with the official cyclone season running until May 15. However, cyclones or tropical storms can form outside of this period. The MMS will continue to monitor the situation and update its forecasts as new information becomes available.
Key points
- The MMS has predicted a hotter and drier summer for Mauritius, with temperatures reaching 37°C and 80% of usual rainfall expected.
- Five to seven cyclones or tropical storms could form in the southwestern Indian Ocean, but it is unclear if they will affect Mauritius or Rodrigues.
- The public is advised to follow weather forecasts and warnings regularly and be aware of potential dangers such as strong rainfall, thunderstorms, and localized flooding.
