The ratification of the Chagos treaty, signed in May 2025 between Mauritius and the United Kingdom, remains uncertain as Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam attempts to secure British support in London. Jean Claude de l'Estrac, a former Mauritian minister and diplomat, expressed skepticism about a swift resolution. He attributes the impasse to the United States, citing Washington's refusal to back the treaty. The treaty aims to address the longstanding dispute over the Chagos archipelago.
De l'Estrac, who chaired the 'Select Committee' on the Chagos detachment in 1982, believes that the UK will not act without US consent. The 1966 agreement between the UK and US grants the latter significant influence over the archipelago. De l'Estrac also noted that the US has significant operational latitude at Diego Garcia base under the proposed treaty. This situation mirrors a similar agreement between the US, Denmark, and Greenland, where US military rights are extended without a specified end date.
De l'Estrac advocates for tripartite negotiations between Mauritius, the UK, and the US, which he considers the ideal solution. However, he remains pessimistic about the US position, citing a long-standing refusal to engage in direct talks with Mauritius. This stance dates back to 1965 when the Mauritian delegation sought to discuss the Chagos detachment and related economic benefits with US officials.
The Mauritian government's attempts to negotiate with the US were rebuffed, with the UK supporting the US position. De l'Estrac recalled that Mauritian Prime Minister Seewoosagur Ramgoolam had proposed allowing the UK to detach the Chagos after Mauritius gained independence, enabling direct negotiations with the US and UK. However, the UK, possibly at the US' behest, declined this offer.
De l'Estrac thinks that while the UK may now be open to tripartite talks, having recognized Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos following an International Court of Justice ruling, the US remains uncooperative. US President Donald Trump has publicly criticized the treaty, calling it a "terrible" and "grave error." De l'Estrac doubts that the UK would ratify the treaty without US support, given the close bilateral relationship.
The proposed treaty had made progress in the UK Parliament but became obsolete after the parliamentary prorogation in April. It must now be reintroduced. De l'Estrac questions what additional guarantees Mauritius could offer the US to secure support for the treaty. He suggests that the US agreement with the UK may impose more significant constraints than the proposed Mauritian treaty.
The fate of the Chagos treaty and, by extension, Mauritian sovereignty over the archipelago hangs in the balance. De l'Estrac's comments underscore the complexities of the issue and the significant influence of external actors. As Ramgoolam continues discussions in London, the outcome remains uncertain, with the US stance being a crucial factor.
Key points
- The ratification of the Chagos treaty depends on US support.
- Tripartite negotiations between Mauritius, the UK, and US are proposed.
- The US has historically refused direct negotiations with Mauritius.
