Mauritania Media Reflects on 1960 Study Predicting Mathematical 'Doomsday'

The Mauritanian media is revisiting a 1960 scientific study that predicted a mathematical 'Doomsday' for November 13, 2026. The study, published in the American journal Science on November 4, 1960, was conducted by physicist Heinz von Foerster from the University of Illinois, along with his students Lawrence Amiot and Patricia Mora. They used a mathematical model to analyze 24 estimates of the world population over two millennia.

The researchers found that if the population growth rate continued without slowing, the world population would theoretically grow infinitely by November 13, 2026. This date was dubbed 'Doomsday' by the authors. However, their study did not predict a catastrophic event or the physical destruction of the planet. Instead, it aimed to warn about the risks of a major crisis caused by overpopulation and pressure on natural resources.

The study's model showed a hyperbolic growth curve, indicating an accelerating population growth rate. The authors based their predictions on historical population data, but did not account for potential changes in fertility rates or other demographic factors. Their goal was to alert policymakers and the public to the potential consequences of unchecked population growth.

In reality, however, the world's population growth has deviated significantly from the predicted trajectory since 1993. The global fertility rate has declined sharply, falling by more than half since 1960. This decline has been driven by demographic transitions worldwide, which have led to slower population growth and, in some cases, population decline.

According to the United Nations, the global population growth rate has slowed significantly since the 1960s, from around 2.0% per year to around 1.1% in 2020. While the world's population is still growing, it is doing so at a much slower rate than predicted by von Foerster and his colleagues. This slower growth has reduced the pressure on natural resources and has given governments and policymakers more time to address the challenges associated with a growing population.

The 1960 study has been widely discussed on social media in recent days, with some people mistakenly believing that it predicted the end of the world. However, the study's authors were focused on the social and economic implications of rapid population growth, rather than a catastrophic event. Their work remains an important contribution to the field of demography and a reminder of the need for sustainable population growth and resource management.

Today, the study serves as a reminder of the importance of considering the long-term implications of population growth and demographic change. While the predicted 'Doomsday' did not materialize, the study's findings remain relevant, highlighting the need for continued investment in family planning, education, and sustainable development. By understanding the drivers of population growth and demographic change, policymakers can develop more effective strategies for managing these trends and promoting sustainable development.

Key points

• The 1960 study predicted infinite population growth by November 13, 2026, but real growth has deviated from this trajectory since 1993.