Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month's election, two polls showed on Monday. The polls, conducted by Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus, indicate that the advantages are within the margin of error. This development comes as Brazil prepares for its October 4 first-round election, with Lula and Bolsonaro emerging as the frontrunners.
According to the Quaest poll, Bolsonaro would receive 42% of voter support in a potential runoff, against 41% for Lula. The previous Quaest poll, released on September 14, showed Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40%. The Quaest poll surveyed 2,004 people from September 17 to 20, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
In a first-round scenario, Quaest had Lula leading with 37% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 33%, Cury with 6%, and Caiado with 4%. Last week, the poll showed Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 31% in the first round. These numbers indicate a tight competition between Lula and Bolsonaro, with other candidates trailing behind.
The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula would receive 46% of voter support, compared with 45% for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff. A September 14 survey had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 46%. This poll also surveyed 2,006 people from September 18 to 20, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro with 37%, Augusto Cury with 6%, and Ronaldo Caiado with 5%. The previous first-round survey had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%. These polls suggest that Lula and Bolsonaro are closely matched, making the October 4 first-round election and potential runoff on October 25 highly competitive.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25. The polls indicate that Lula and Bolsonaro are the top contenders, with other candidates lagging behind. The Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus polls provide insight into the current state of the Brazilian presidential election.
The Brazilian presidential election is set to take place on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25. Lula and Bolsonaro are statistically tied in the polls, making the election highly unpredictable. The final outcome will depend on the voters' decisions in the coming weeks.
Key points
- Lula and Bolsonaro are statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of Brazil's October 4 election.
- Two polls, conducted by Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus, indicate that the advantages are within the margin of error.
- The Brazilian presidential election is set to take place on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25.
