Exit polls from Latvia's parliamentary election suggest that Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List party is in the lead with 35.6 percent of the vote. This indicates that the country is likely to maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. However, populist parties also performed well in the election, which was dominated by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living. Kulbergs, who assumed the post of prime minister in May, said that the results showed people wanted change, including economic growth and a future for Latvia's children.
Despite the United List party's lead, Kulbergs' coalition is unlikely to survive in its current form. One coalition partner, the Union of Greens and Farmers, appeared to have finished with only 3.7 percent of the vote, below the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. This means that Kulbergs will have to form a new ruling coalition. Analysts warn that exit polls may not accurately reflect the final results, particularly among Latvia's Russian-speaking electorate, who may be reluctant to admit support for more radical parties.
Populist parties gained ground in the election by focusing on domestic issues such as the cost of living. Sovereign Power, a party criticised as pro-Russian, finished in fourth place with 10.8 percent of the vote. The party has opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases to defence spending, highlighting instead domestic economic problems. Despite its gains, the party is unlikely to enter government because most major parties have ruled out working with it.
Another populist force, Latvia First, finished in second place with 11.3 percent of the vote. Led by businessman Ainars Slesers, it could prove a more viable coalition partner for Kulbergs' United List party. The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party, finished third with 11.1 percent of the vote. The party advocates for stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine.
Security remains a central concern in Latvia, four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Latvia views Russia as its principal security threat and has significantly increased defence spending in response. Most parties expected to enter parliament back high military spending and maintaining aid to Kyiv. However, rising living costs, low wages, and strains on the healthcare system also featured prominently in campaign debates.
Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority are changing. Many voters are increasingly making choices based on economic and social issues rather than identity politics alone. Kulbergs said that the country's main task was to have a strong economy, a strong border region, and a strong Latgale. The preliminary official results are expected on Sunday, at which point attention will quickly shift to coalition talks.
The coalition talks are expected to be lengthy and complex. Analysts say that it is too early to accurately predict the shape of any future coalition. Sigita Struberga, secretary general of the Latvian transatlantic association LATO, said that the real percentage of votes might be slightly different from the exit polls. Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, warned that populist parties might perform better than anticipated in the final results.
Key points
- - Latvia's pro-Ukraine party leads in exit polls with 35.6 percent of the vote. - Populist parties gained ground in the election by focusing on domestic issues such as the cost of living. - Coalition talks are expected to be complex, with Kulbergs needing to form a new ruling coalition.
