Lagos State is emerging as a major battleground ahead of the 2027 general election. The state's political landscape has become more competitive due to deepening economic hardship, growing youth-led opposition, and concerns over the shrinking democratic space. The All Progressives Congress (APC), which has been President Bola Tinubu's stronghold for decades, faces a significant challenge from opposition forces seeking to convert growing public discontent into electoral gains.
The APC lost Lagos to Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 presidential election by 9,848 votes, marking a reversal of the party's victories in the state in the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections. The party is responding with a restructured campaign operation, more grassroots offices, and a membership drive that has registered about one million members. However, analysts and residents say the conditions that contributed to the APC's defeat in 2023 remain in place, with the rising cost of living adding to public discontent.
The stakes are high for the APC in Lagos, where Tinubu served as governor from 1999 to 2007 and built a political network that helped propel the party to national power. The state remains Nigeria's largest electorate, with 7,488,633 registered voters for the 2027 elections. However, the 2023 presidential election exposed the limits of the party's traditional dominance, with Obi polling 582,454 votes, representing 45.81 percent, against the APC's 572,606 votes, or 45.04 percent.
Electoral figures show that the APC's winning margin in Lagos narrowed over the past three presidential elections before the party lost the state in 2023. In 2015, the APC won 792,460 votes against the Peoples Democratic Party's 632,327, giving it a margin of 160,133 votes. In 2019, the party secured 580,825 votes against the PDP's 448,015, reducing its margin to 132,810 votes. Voter turnout remained low, falling from 28.8 percent in 2015 to 18.95 percent in 2019 and 19.08 percent in 2023.
The economic environment is another challenge for the ruling party, with the 2023 election taking place amid cash shortages and rising living costs, and subsequent reforms initiated by Tinubu adding to the pressure on household budgets. For voters in Lagos, a major commercial centre where many households depend on daily earnings and small businesses, the effects of inflation and higher transport costs could influence electoral choices.
Demographic changes may further complicate the party's efforts, with Lagos having a large population of young voters, professionals, and residents from different parts of the country. The political consciousness that followed the 2020 #EndSARS protests has also contributed to greater youth engagement with governance and elections. In 2023, the LP drew support from young voters and diverse communities, winning nine of Lagos State's 20 local government areas.
Beyond economic conditions and voter demographics, concerns about the political environment in Lagos could influence the contest. Opposition parties face challenges competing in the state, with some accusing the ruling party of denying them a level playing field. The conduct of the campaign and the credibility of the electoral process will be crucial in shaping public confidence ahead of the election.
Key points
- The APC's traditional dominance in Lagos is being challenged by opposition forces.
- The state's large youth population and diverse communities will play a significant role in shaping the 2027 election.
- Economic hardship and concerns over the shrinking democratic space are major challenges for the ruling party.
