KwaZulu-Natal is set to play a crucial role in determining South Africa's political future as the local government elections approach. Two recent polls have revealed that the ANC's long-standing dominance in the province is crumbling, while the MK Party is surging towards a possible historic takeover. The Ipsos survey conducted in June and July found that the MK Party leads in eThekwini with 55% support among registered voters who expressed a party preference.
The Ipsos survey also showed that the DA is second in eThekwini with 17% support, while the ANC has fallen to 10%. The margin of error is 6.86 percentage points, making the MK Party's lead strong but not insurmountable. ANC KZN convenor Mike Mabuyakhulu has dismissed the findings, stating that the party does not listen to surveys and that voters will decide on the ground.
Another poll by the Social Research Foundation released in August presents a different picture, with the MK Party's support in eThekwini at 33%, down from 44% in a March 2026 SRF poll. In this scenario, the DA is at 23%, the ANC at 18%, and the IFP at 16%. Provincially, the SRF found ANC support at 25%, down from 54% in 2019, with the MK Party at 24%.
The differing results of the two polls highlight the uncertainty of the election outcome and the importance of coalition negotiations. The DA has positioned itself as the defender of constitutionalism, but its record is complicated, with critics arguing that it is only committed to the Constitution when it serves its interests. The party recently won a Constitutional Court victory against the Public Procurement Act.
The MK Party, on the other hand, raises concerns about its commitment to the Constitution, with its manifesto proposing a lower house of parliament made up of elected representatives and an upper house made up of Indigenous kings and queens. The party has also spoken openly about holding a referendum to scrap the Constitution, which it views as a tool of oppression.
The ANC has positioned itself nationally as the guardian of constitutionalism, but in KwaZulu-Natal, it has lost the confidence of its electorate due to poor service delivery. ANC KZN provincial convenor Jeff Radebe acknowledged that the 2026 elections would be decided by visible performance at the municipal level, where service delivery has been lacking.
The election is also seeing the emergence of independent candidates, with the eThekwini Ratepayers Protest Movement establishing a political structure to contest the elections. University of KwaZulu-Natal analyst Siyabonga Ntombela says this strengthens democracy, as organizations that once pressured government are now seeking to take political power from established parties.
Key points
- The ANC's dominance in KwaZulu-Natal is crumbling, with polls indicating a surge in support for the MK Party.
- The DA's commitment to constitutionalism is being questioned by many black voters.
- Independent candidates may hold the key to coalition arithmetic in municipalities where no party wins outright.
