A succession battle within the Kwara State All Progressives Congress (APC) has escalated into a full-blown political crisis, with several key stakeholders, including Senator Saliu Mustapha, defecting to the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The crisis centers on who will succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who will complete his second term in May 2027 and is ineligible for a third term. The governor's supporters and opponents are vying for control of the party and the state's political future.
The disagreement between Mustapha and AbdulRazaq began before the APC primary but intensified during the process, which saw Yakubu Danladi-Salihu emerge as the party's governorship candidate. Danladi-Salihu, the speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, polled over 94,000 votes, sparking allegations of a manipulated process. The primary was significant, as Danladi-Salihu is from Kwara North, a zone that has long argued for an opportunity to produce the governor.
The emergence of Danladi-Salihu as the APC's candidate has been disputed by some party stakeholders, who claim the process was imposed and favored a preferred successor. In response, a group of former aspirants formed the "Rainbow Coalition," led by Senator Mustapha. The coalition includes the G15 of aggrieved governorship aspirants, Otoge Progressives, and elements of the party's elders' caucus. The APC has defended the legitimacy of its processes, citing support from 51 ward chairmen in Kwara Central.
The legislative primaries added to the tension, with the APC initially screening out 105 of 158 aspirants seeking State House of Assembly tickets. However, the party later reversed the decision, clearing all 159 aspirants in a revised exercise. The initial decision created the impression of a dramatic purge, while the reversal showed the party's ability to adjust its position when faced with political consequences.
Senator Mustapha's defection to the PDP has transformed the internal APC dispute into a broader political realignment. His move represents part of a wider coalition of dissatisfied APC stakeholders. The PDP has acquired an unexpected opportunity, as some forces that helped establish the APC's dominance are now divided. The APC's internal crisis has become an opportunity for the PDP to rebuild its grassroots organization.
The defections are significant, with over 2,000 APC members in Adewole Ward, Ilorin West Local Government Area, reportedly defecting to the PDP. Adewole is the ancestral ward of Governor AbdulRazaq, making the development symbolically important. Defections have also occurred in Offa, including from Shawo Central Ward, and two APC members of the Kwara State House of Assembly have defected to the PDP.
The Kwara State House of Assembly has declared the seats of the two defecting lawmakers vacant, citing the APC's argument that they had no constitutional basis to defect in the absence of a division within the party. The real significance of these defections will depend on whether the defectors can convert their movement into an effective political organization. The challenge lies ahead for both the APC and the PDP, as they prepare for the 2027 election.
Key points
- The succession battle within the Kwara APC has led to a significant number of defections to the PDP.
- The crisis centers on who will succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who will complete his second term in May 2027.
- The defections have created an opportunity for the PDP to rebuild its grassroots organization and challenge the APC's dominance in Kwara State.
