Kenya is experiencing a milk shortage due to a combination of factors, including drought and panic buying. According to Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe, the country's formal milk intake collected from farmers by processors dropped by roughly 5.8% starting around mid-2026, falling to approximately 84.44 million liters by June. This decline has led to noticeable retail shortages across major urban hubs like Nairobi, Kisumu, and Nakuru by August and September.
CS Kagwe has ruled out Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) as a primary factor behind Kenya's ongoing milk deficit. Instead, he attributes the squeeze to prolonged drought conditions that have severely limited dairy feed, alongside consumer panic buying. The drought has drastically cut down fodder availability, reducing daily yield per livestock head. As a result, milk collections from farmers to formal processing plants have dropped.
The supply dip began taking shape around mid-2026, with data from the Kenya Dairy Board revealing a steady decline in formal milk intake. By late August and early September, major retail outlets and supermarket chains across urban centers began experiencing noticeable gaps on store shelves. The issue was further compounded by competition from the informal market, with unorganized middlemen offering higher farmgate cash prices and diverting raw milk away from commercial processors.
The persistent shortage has sparked widespread frustration among consumers, consumer rights groups, and industry observers. On social media and at local retail outlets, Kenyans have voiced dismay over empty dairy aisles and rising retail prices. The Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) raised alarms early during the shortage, warning that reduced formal intake would hit lower-income households hardest.
Despite the retail deficit, dairy farming remains financially viable for producers who have feed reserves. Data from the Kenya Dairy Board indicates that the average cost of producing a liter of milk ranges between Sh24.50 for open grazing and Sh39.50 for zero-grazing systems, yielding an overall production average of Sh36.20 per liter. Amid the current supply crunch, processors and private buyers are offering premium farmgate prices between Sh55 and Sh60 per liter.
CS Kagwe expects market conditions to stabilize as the seasonal rains resume and replenish pastures across key dairy belts. The government has put measures in place to manage excess milk, including increasing the capacity to process milk into powder for export markets, particularly in North Africa. The Ministry of Agriculture is encouraging dairy cooperatives to pass market premiums directly to farmers and accelerate the adoption of drought-tolerant fodder varieties.
With the upcoming rainy season expected to regenerate pastures, authorities anticipate supply levels to recover in the coming months. The government has distributed about 230 milk coolers across the country over the past 24 months to reduce post-harvest losses by providing farmers with storage facilities. As the situation stabilizes, Kenyans can expect the milk shortage to ease, and supplies to return to normal levels.
Key points
- The milk shortage in Kenya is attributed to drought and panic buying, with a 5.8% drop in milk collected from farmers to processors.
- The government expects market conditions to stabilize with the upcoming rains and has put measures in place to manage excess milk.
- Dairy farming remains financially viable for producers with feed reserves, with processors and private buyers offering premium farmgate prices.
