The Kenya Meteorological Service has issued a forecast warning of heavy rains in several counties across the country between November 3 and 10. According to the weekly outlook, parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Samburu, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir, and West Pokot counties are expected to receive rainfall.
The forecast follows a monthly prediction issued on November 2 by acting director of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki, who stated that most parts of the country are expected to receive above-average rainfall in November and December. Muriuki warned that the increased rainfall could lead to flooding, damage roads, and increase the risk of diseases such as malaria, cholera, and typhoid.
The expected rains come after much of Kenya received below-average to near-average rainfall in October, despite some areas recording significant amounts. An automatic weather station at Ng'iya Primary School in Siaya recorded the highest monthly rainfall total in October, at 264.4mm, according to the meteorological authority. Some stations in Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Kisii, Kisumu, and Lamu also recorded rainfall above their usual October amounts.
Muriuki emphasized that November is a crucial month in the October-November-December short rains season, as rainfall supports agricultural activities, replenishes water resources, and sustains livelihoods. The expected rains could improve soil moisture and pasture availability following the dry conditions experienced in recent months. However, he cautioned that excessive rainfall could disrupt farming activities and the transportation of produce from farms to markets.
Rural access roads are particularly vulnerable to deterioration and may become impassable after prolonged rainfall, affecting the movement of people, goods, and essential services. Urban areas could also experience traffic congestion and transport disruptions where drainage systems are overwhelmed. The authority further warned that accumulated water could create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, potentially increasing malaria transmission in susceptible areas.
Flooding and poor drainage could also contaminate water sources and increase the risk of cholera, typhoid, and diarrhoeal infections. On the other hand, the rains are expected to replenish rivers, dams, water pans, and groundwater sources, potentially improving water availability for households, farmers, and livestock. However, increased river flows could result in localized flooding, particularly in areas near rivers and other low-lying locations.
The meteorological authority has advised Kenyans to use the weekly forecast alongside shorter-term updates, which provide more specific information on expected weather conditions. By doing so, individuals and communities can take necessary precautions to mitigate the potential impacts of the heavy rains and flooding.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Service forecasts heavy rains in several counties from November 3 to 10, warning of potential flooding and disease outbreaks.
- The expected rains could improve soil moisture and pasture availability, but also disrupt farming activities and transportation.
- The meteorological authority has advised Kenyans to use the weekly forecast alongside shorter-term updates to take necessary precautions.
