The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecast rainfall in several parts of the country this week as the October-December short rains season gets underway. In an update, the weatherman said rainfall is expected over parts of West Pokot, Siaya, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bungoma, Kakamega, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Kericho, Kisii, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Nyandarua, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi, Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu counties.
The service also forecast strong southerly to southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots, equivalent to 12.5 metres per second, over parts of Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit counties. The latest forecast comes days after the Kenya Meteorological Service said the October-December rainfall season had begun, with light to moderate rainfall expected in parts of all 47 counties.
The department said rainfall during the season will be influenced by several climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other weather systems. The latest forecast follows an earlier warning that El Niño rains would spread to more parts of the country during October.
The Met said rains had already started in parts of 24 counties by October 5, with other areas expected to receive rainfall during the following weeks. The service has warned that heavier-than-normal rainfall could improve soil moisture, support planting, regenerate pasture and increase water availability for livestock.
However, excessive rainfall could also result in flooding, waterlogging, crop diseases and disruption of farm operations and transport. The Met has particularly forecast the possibility of heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern regions during the season. It has also warned residents in low-lying areas and those living near rivers to take precautions against possible flooding.
The World Meteorological Organisation has also warned that the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions during the final quarter of 2026 as El Niño strengthens. The WMO said October to December is a critical rainfall period for Kenya and other countries in the region, accounting for a significant share of annual rainfall in parts of Kenya.
Authorities have meanwhile stepped up preparations for the expected rains. The government has activated a national response plan, with search-and-rescue teams, evacuation centres and emergency supplies placed on standby. The WMO said its latest seasonal outlook showed El Niño continuing to intensify towards a forecast peak in December.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecast rainfall in several parts of the country as the October-December short rains season gets underway.
- The service has warned that heavier-than-normal rainfall could improve soil moisture, support planting, regenerate pasture and increase water availability for livestock, but also result in flooding and other disruptions.
- Authorities have stepped up preparations for the expected rains, with the government activating a national response plan and search-and-rescue teams, evacuation centres and emergency supplies placed on standby.
