The Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) has issued a weekly weather forecast predicting widespread rainfall across multiple regions of the country between October 9 and October 16, 2026. The forecast warns of isolated storms in select areas, with rainfall expected across a broad swath of counties. This includes Northeastern and Coastal Regions such as Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, and Kwale.
The Western, Lake Victoria Basin, and Rift Valley regions are also expected to experience rainfall, with counties including Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma, Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Migori, Siaya, Homa Bay, Kericho, Nandi, Bomet, Nakuru, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, and Trans Nzoia. The Central Highlands and Eastern regions, including Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Nyandarua, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, and Nairobi, are also expected to receive rainfall.
The meteorological department has cautioned that while precipitation levels will vary across counties, localized heavy storms remain a possibility. Additionally, strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots are expected over parts of Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit counties. Residents are advised to stay updated on official weather advisories and exercise caution, especially in low-lying areas, river basins, and flood-prone zones.
The forecast aligns with earlier warnings from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which noted that a strengthening El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the Greater Horn of Africa during the final quarter of 2026. El Niño is a complex weather pattern that can have significant impacts on global climate conditions.
The October–December short rains are vital for agricultural productivity, livestock pasture, and water reserves. However, heavy downpours carry significant risks of flash flooding, mudslides, crop damage, and transport disruptions. The Kenyan government has activated national disaster response protocols, placing emergency management teams, evacuation centers, and relief supplies on standby.
Public safety agencies have advised residents in low-lying areas, river basins, and flood-prone zones to stay updated on official weather advisories and exercise caution. The government has also urged residents to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety and the safety of their property.
The Kenya Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the weather situation and provide updates as necessary. Residents are advised to stay informed through official channels and follow evacuation instructions from local authorities if necessary. The government is working to mitigate the impacts of the heavy rains and strong winds.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Service has issued a weather forecast warning of widespread rainfall and isolated storms across multiple regions from October 9 to 16, 2026.
- A strengthening El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the Greater Horn of Africa during the final quarter of 2026.
- The Kenyan government has activated national disaster response protocols, placing emergency management teams, evacuation centers, and relief supplies on standby.
