The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its weekly weather forecast for the period running from Tuesday, October 6, to Monday, October 12, 2026. The forecast projects rainfall across 46 of the country's 47 counties. This information was made available on October 6, 2026, at 8:26 AM by Amos Khaemba.
The forecast indicates varied rainfall patterns depending on the time of day and geographic location. Along the Coast, morning showers are expected in parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu Counties, with afternoon showers also anticipated in those areas. Similarly, counties in the central and eastern regions, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Kajiado, Laikipia, and Taita Taveta, are forecast to receive morning rains, with afternoon showers also likely in most of these areas.
In the North, morning rains are expected in parts of Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, and Wajir Counties. Isiolo, Samburu, and Turkana Counties are forecast to experience sunny intervals during the afternoons. Western counties, including Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, and Kericho among others, are set for sunny morning intervals followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Night showers are anticipated across a broad band of counties including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Meru, Wajir, and several others. Partly cloudy conditions are expected overnight in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Kisii, Garissa, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Makueni, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Taita Taveta, and West Pokot Counties.
Beyond rainfall, the department flagged notable temperature variations. Daytime maximum temperatures exceeding 35°C are expected in parts of Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana Counties, signalling continued heat stress in the arid north. At the other extreme, night-time minimum temperatures are forecast to drop below 10°C in select highland and elevated areas, including parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Trans Nzoia, Taita Taveta, and Kajiado Counties.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027. A national risk assessment produced by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) identified specific threats in each affected region, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure.
Residents in the affected zones should prepare for the anticipated weather conditions during the forecast period. The Kenya Meteorological Department's forecast aims to inform the public and relevant authorities about the expected weather patterns, enabling them to take necessary precautions and make informed decisions.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall across 46 counties from October 6 to 12, 2026.
- Daytime temperatures above 35°C are anticipated in parts of Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana Counties.
- The probability of a strong El Niño developing this year is 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027.
