The Kenya Meteorological Department has released a daily weather forecast covering the 24-hour period from 9:00 pm on September 21, 2026, to 9:00 pm on September 22, 2026. The bulletin alerts residents across dozens of counties to expect rainfall and strong winds. Enhanced rainfall is expected in the western region, with Kakamega, Vihiga, and Bungoma counties listed as areas most likely to experience significant downpours.
Beyond the western region, the department forecasts rain across a wide stretch of the country, affecting counties including Kericho, Nandi, Kisumu, Baringo, Bomet, Homa Bay, Nakuru, Busia, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nyandarua, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Nairobi, Embu, Meru, and Nyeri. Residents in these counties are advised to take necessary precautions.
In the western counties of Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, and Nyamira, temperatures are expected to range between a minimum of 13°C in Kericho and a maximum of 29°C in Homa Bay and Migori. Nairobi is forecast to reach a maximum of 23°C. Along the coast and in the north, Mandera is set to record the highest temperature, reaching 35°C, while Marsabit is expected to see the lowest minimum at 17°C.
The department also cautions residents and travelers in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kitui to expect strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots, equivalent to 12.5 meters per second. These winds may cause disruptions and damage.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027. This weather pattern is expected to bring significant challenges to various parts of the country.
A national risk assessment produced by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified specific threats in each affected region, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, and damage to critical infrastructure. Residents in affected counties are advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department continues to monitor the weather situation and provide updates to the public. Residents are advised to stay informed through official channels and follow evacuation instructions from local authorities. The department's forecast is crucial in helping residents prepare for the expected weather conditions.
Key points
- Enhanced rainfall is expected in western Kenya, with Kakamega, Vihiga, and Bungoma counties most likely to experience significant downpours.
- Strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots are forecast over more than a dozen counties, including Turkana, Garissa, and Lamu.
- The probability of a strong El Niño developing this year is 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027.
