Kenya has officially entered the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service forecasting wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country. The Meteorological Service has released county-specific timelines for the onset of the rains, with some regions already experiencing rainfall while others are expected to receive the rains in the coming weeks. Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rainfall had already begun in parts of 24 counties.
The onset of the rains has been recorded in several counties across western Kenya, the Rift Valley and Nyanza. They include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok. At the Coast, rainfall has also started in Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, as well as parts of the Tana Delta.
According to Muriuki, parts of northeastern Kenya, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, are expected to experience the onset during the first or second week of October. Much of central Kenya and Ukambani is expected to receive the rains next week or the following week. The areas include Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni.
The Meteorological Service expects particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern regions. The areas include Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir. Other areas expected to receive above-average rainfall include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
The wetter conditions could provide several benefits to farmers, including improved soil moisture, better conditions for land preparation and planting, regeneration of pasture and increased water availability for livestock. However, the Met warned that excessive rainfall could also create challenges, including waterlogging, crop diseases, disruption of farm operations and difficulties transporting agricultural produce.
The agency has also warned of possible flooding and landslides, particularly in areas prone to such hazards. Residents living in low-lying areas and near rivers have been advised to take the forecasts seriously and prepare for possible flooding. The October-December rainfall season is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The October-December rains are expected to continue into January in many central, western and eastern counties. In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, however, the season is expected to end during the first or second week of December. Turkana and Samburu are expected to record poor to fair rainfall despite the broader forecast of wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country.
Key points
- Kenya Meteorological Service forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country as October-December rainfall season begins.
- Heavy rainfall expected in parts of the Coast and northeastern regions.
- Wetter conditions could provide benefits to farmers but also pose challenges such as flooding and landslides.
