Financial investors in Morocco expect Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to maintain its key policy rate at its third monetary policy meeting of 2026, scheduled for September 22. According to Attijari Global Research (AGR), a near-unanimous consensus among investors favors keeping the central bank's benchmark rate unchanged.
AGR's September survey gathered expectations from 35 investors considered among the most influential participants in Morocco's financial market. Investors assign a 93% probability to the key rate remaining unchanged, compared with a 7% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Local institutional investors assign a 97% probability to a status quo, against 3% for a 25-basis-point increase.
Market reference participants, who AGR describes as individuals with sufficient knowledge of Morocco's financial market to reflect investor sentiment without directly participating in the market, give a 92% probability to a stable rate and 8% to a 25-basis-point increase. Individual investors put the probability of maintaining the key rate at 83%, compared with 17% for a 25-basis-point increase.
Foreign investors, meanwhile, were unanimous in expecting the key policy rate to remain unchanged, according to AGR. The survey reflects investors' expectations ahead of the monetary policy meeting and does not constitute a decision by Bank Al-Maghrib. The central bank will announce its monetary policy decision following its September 22 meeting.
Morocco's investment landscape has shown strong momentum in 2026. In April, the National Investment Commission approved 44 projects worth MAD 86.36 billion ($8.6 billion), expected to generate around 20,500 jobs across sectors including tourism, renewable energy, automotive manufacturing, agri-food, health, infrastructure, mining, and aeronautics.
Foreign direct investment reached a record MAD 56.1 billion ($5.6 billion) in 2025, according to figures cited by the government. The country is seeking to attract investment into emerging and strategic sectors, including renewable energy, green hydrogen, critical minerals, digital infrastructure, and transport.
The direction of Bank Al-Maghrib's policy rate remains relevant for investors, as changes in borrowing costs can affect financing conditions for businesses and investment projects. US government agency USTDA identified areas such as renewable energy and critical minerals among its priorities for future cooperation with Morocco, citing the country's trade links and strategic position.
Key points
- Investors assign a 93% probability to the key rate remaining unchanged.
- Morocco's investment landscape has shown strong momentum in 2026.
- The central bank's decision will be announced on September 22.
