The recent call for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's impeachment has sparked debate about the feasibility of such a move. Despite renewed controversy over Tinubu's prolonged absence from Nigeria and allegations of constitutional breaches, the process of impeachment is complex and requires significant support from lawmakers. According to the 1999 Constitution, a written notice alleging gross misconduct must be signed by at least one-third of all members of the National Assembly and presented to the President of the Senate.
The impeachment process involves both chambers of the National Assembly and requires progressively more difficult thresholds at each critical stage. The first step is a written notice alleging gross misconduct, which must contain detailed particulars of the alleged misconduct. Within 14 days, both the Senate and House of Representatives must decide whether the allegation should be investigated, requiring a two-thirds majority in each chamber. If that hurdle is crossed, the President of the Senate asks the Chief Justice of Nigeria to constitute a seven-member investigative panel.
The arithmetic of the impeachment process is particularly important, with the Senate having 109 members and the House having 360 members. A two-thirds threshold in the Senate requires 73 senators, while in the House, it requires 240 representatives. The ruling party, the APC, controls substantially more than the 37 senators required to block a two-thirds resolution, holding 88 seats in the Senate. This makes it difficult for those seeking Tinubu's removal to persuade a large number of lawmakers from the ruling party to vote against the President.
History has shown that impeachment threats in Nigeria are often unsuccessful. In 2002, the House of Representatives threatened to impeach President Olusegun Obasanjo over allegations of constitutional breaches, incompetence, and corruption, but the required impeachment notice was never successfully served. Similarly, in 2018, the National Assembly warned President Muhammadu Buhari that it could invoke its constitutional powers if the administration failed to address certain concerns, but Buhari remained in office until the expiration of his term.
The most recent precedent for impeachment threats is the 9th National Assembly, which demonstrated the gap between an impeachment threat and an actual constitutional process. In July 2022, senators across political parties threatened to commence impeachment proceedings against Buhari over the deteriorating security situation, but the threatened impeachment never materialized. The Senate leadership disputed the characterization of the action as an official impeachment process, highlighting the difference between political messaging and constitutional action.
Experts have noted that the one-third threshold required to initiate proceedings is considerably easier to reach than the two-thirds threshold required to remove a president. The Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre pointed out that Buhari had faced impeachment threats at least four times since assuming office in 2015, yet none resulted in his removal. This suggests that impeachment threats in Nigeria are often used as a political tool rather than a genuine attempt to remove a president from office.
In conclusion, while impeachment threats against President Tinubu are constitutionally possible, the political and numerical realities of the 10th National Assembly make a successful removal a substantially different proposition. Those seeking Tinubu's removal would have to persuade a very large number of lawmakers from the ruling party to vote against the President at two separate two-thirds stages, and ultimately secure the same supermajority in the House. This is a formidable political undertaking that is unlikely to succeed.
Key points
- The ruling party, APC, controls 88 seats in the Senate, making it difficult for those seeking Tinubu's removal to block a two-thirds resolution.
- Impeachment threats in Nigeria have historically been unsuccessful, with previous attempts against Presidents Obasanjo and Buhari failing to result in removal from office.
- The impeachment process requires a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, making it a challenging task to remove a president from office.
