The International Crisis Group has called for an immediate truce in Yemen, citing concerns that the Houthis' rapid advance along the western coast has opened a new front in the regional war. The organisation warned that further escalation risks drawing more countries into the fighting. In a statement, Crisis Group urged Oman to broker a reciprocal halt to hostilities involving the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen's internationally recognised government.
The Houthis' recent gains, including the capture of Mokha on 11 September, have overturned the local military balance. The organisation said these advances put the Houthis in a stronger position to threaten Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. This development links Yemen's conflict more closely to the confrontation that began with the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February. Crisis Group also noted that Saudi Arabia's exposure to threats has increased at both Bab Al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Crisis Group statement highlighted growing Saudi reliance on Egypt as Riyadh seeks alternative routes for its oil exports. Crude is transported by tanker to Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea, then carried through the Arab Petroleum pipeline to the Mediterranean. The pressure on exports increased after missiles launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups hit above-ground pumping stations, prompting Saudi Arabia to close its largely underground East-West pipeline on 11 September.
The pipeline had been carrying between three million and 4.5 million barrels a day towards the Red Sea, helping offset restrictions at Hormuz. Separately, Saudi crude shipments through Bab Al-Mandeb fell from more than 3.5 million barrels a day in early July to almost zero in August, according to Crisis Group. The organisation traced the latest escalation to Houthi attacks on Saudi territory and Saudi-linked ships beginning on 20 July.
During August, the Houthis repeatedly struck Mokha, its port and nearby positions with ballistic missiles, drones and explosive-laden boats. Crisis Group assessed that these operations enabled the Houthis to identify defensive positions, measure reinforcement times and test the response of government-aligned forces. The decisive advance targeted supply lines near Mokha, with fighting in the mountains of western Taiz and the capture of a military encampment threatening roads connecting Taiz, Hodeida, Mokha and Bab Al-Mandeb.
The collapse also reflected longstanding divisions among the forces defending the coast. The National Resistance, Giants Brigades, National Shield and Taiz axis units maintained separate command structures and supply arrangements, rather than operating as a unified army with integrated reserves and air defence. The UAE's withdrawal from Yemen in January left additional political and logistical gaps.
Crisis Group proposed freezing military positions through a reciprocal cessation of hostilities, with the Houthis halting their offensive and stopping attacks on Saudi territory and shipping. The organisation identified Oman as best placed to mediate and urged Iran to support Houthi restraint. Sustainable de-escalation would probably require an easing of US-Iran tensions, Crisis Group said, calling on European and regional states to revive a version of the now-defunct memorandum of understanding reached in June.
Key points
- The International Crisis Group warns that the Houthis' rapid advance in Yemen risks drawing more countries into the conflict.
- The organisation urges an Oman-mediated truce to halt hostilities involving the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen's internationally recognised government.
- Crisis Group proposes a reciprocal cessation of hostilities to freeze military positions and create space for renewed political negotiations.
