A significant development is unfolding in Ethiopia, where a broad spectrum of opposition movements has united with a single goal: to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed or undermine it through armed operations. This alliance, comprising seven major armed organisations, has raised concerns about the country's stability. The armed groups, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Fano forces, and the Oromo Liberation Army, have been carrying out numerous attacks across Ethiopia, with the Amhara region being the most affected.
According to international projects and platforms tracking armed conflicts, over 7,500 armed attacks occurred in Ethiopia between January 2022 and May 2026. The Amhara region accounted for more than half of these attacks, with Fano forces carrying out 3,720 attacks across a wide geographical area. The Oromia region came second, with armed opposition groups carrying out 2,735 attacks during the same period. These numbers indicate a significant threat to Ethiopia's security and federal rule.
The armed alliance has taken the federal authorities in Addis Ababa by surprise, and it is considered the most dangerous threat facing Abiy Ahmed's project since 2018. The alliance consists of seven major armed organisations, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Fano forces, and the Oromo Liberation Army. These groups have strong influence in various regions, including rural areas, and have established local governance structures, disrupting electoral processes in several constituencies.
The formation of the armed alliance has presented the Ethiopian government with pressing challenges. The authority of the federal government is retreating in the Tigray region, where the Tigray People's Liberation Front has established effective control over major cities. The armed confrontation has resulted in thousands of civilian casualties, displacements, and a heightened risk of regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The two countries have exchanged diplomatic accusations, and each has deployed forces along the border.
Eritrea fears that Abiy Ahmed may seek to transfer the military war externally, driven by a growing sense of confidence in allies capable of providing military solutions. He may attempt to seize the ports of Assab and Massawa on the Eritrean coast, which would be a significant escalation. This development has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the potential for further conflict.
Ethiopia's involvement in the Sudanese conflict has also added to the country's instability. The Abiy Ahmed government may face significant consequences for its actions, as reality has shown its assumptions about intervening in Sudan to be distorted and deficient. The joining of seven armed organisations in a political alliance does not necessarily mean the existence of seven armies equal in strength to the federal army, but it presents a significant challenge to the government's authority.
The situation in Ethiopia remains volatile, with the government facing a genuine battlefield dilemma if it has to face the opening of four or five fronts at the same time. The armed alliance has formed to compensate for the imbalance in military capabilities, and the federal authorities must navigate this complex security environment. The region is on the brink of an eruption, and the consequences of inaction or miscalculation could be severe.
Key points
- The Horn of Africa is on the edge of an Ethiopian volcano, with a broad spectrum of opposition movements uniting against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- The armed alliance, comprising seven major armed organisations, has carried out numerous attacks across Ethiopia, with the Amhara region being the most affected.
- The situation in Ethiopia has raised concerns about regional stability, with the potential for further conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
