Ethiopian forces launched a counterattack against Tigray rebels in the Afar region overnight, according to a humanitarian source. The rebels, from the northern Tigray region, had seized local airports and launched attacks into neighboring states of Afar and Amhara. This escalation has raised fears of a repeat of the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-2022.
The conflict has led to an internet disruption in northern Ethiopia, corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray, according to online monitor Netblocks. The blackout has affected the ability to contact sources in the region by phone. A humanitarian source in Afar reported heavy fighting overnight around the town of Abala, which sits in the mountains on the border with Tigray. The federal forces reportedly pushed the rebels from entering the town, using a drone.
Heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela, home to Ethiopia's famed rock churches. Analysts say the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war -- pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa. The offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo.
The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine the federal government's ability to supply. However, the government has a significant military advantage, with a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering some 500,000, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates.
The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war. The US embassy has sided with Ethiopia's government, expressing disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive. The conflict could also draw in neighboring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea.
In Tigray, locals are rushing to stock up on supplies amid fears of conflict. Prices for basic goods have been spiking as panic buying sets in. There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity, and basic goods could be cut off again. The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with Abiy's rise, eventually triggering a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained an uneasy calm until last year, but was never fully implemented, with around one million people still displaced. Sporadic clashes then resumed, with the federal forces launching multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and massing troops at the border. Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.
Key points
- The conflict has led to an internet disruption in northern Ethiopia.
- The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups to overthrow the government.
- The US embassy has sided with Ethiopia's government, expressing disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive.
