Heavy fighting broke out overnight in the Afar region of Ethiopia as government forces clashed with Tigray rebels. A humanitarian source reported that the federal forces successfully repelled the assault on the town of Abala, located on the border with Tigray, using a drone. The conflict has led to an internet blackout in northern Ethiopia, with online monitor Netblocks confirming a disruption in the region.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched a series of attacks on local airports and neighboring states of Afar and Amhara, declaring a "full-blown war" with the federal government. Residents in Tigray are stocking up on supplies, fearing a repeat of the telecoms blackout and blockade imposed during the 2020-2022 civil war, which resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths. Panic buying has led to spiking prices for basic goods in the Tigray capital, Mekelle.
The conflict has sparked concerns about a potential repeat of the devastating civil war. The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained a fragile calm, but was never fully implemented, leaving around one million people displaced. Sporadic clashes resumed last year, with federal forces launching drone strikes in Tigray and massing troops at the border.
Analysts believe the TPLF is attempting to seize key infrastructure routes to undermine the federal government's ability to supply. The group has forged an alliance with six other armed groups to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. However, the government holds a significant military advantage, with a large arsenal of drones, an army of 500,000, and external support.
The renewed fighting has drawn international attention, with the US embassy expressing disappointment at the TPLF's large-scale offensive. The US had recently lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war. Neighboring Eritrea, which fears Ethiopia's plans to invade and gain access to the Red Sea, may also be drawn into the conflict.
Human rights groups have accused the TPLF of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict. The Ethiopian army claimed 272 rebels were killed and 260 injured in an assault on the Amhara region. The conflict has triggered concerns about the humanitarian situation, with over 55,000 Sudanese refugees fleeing to east Chad this year.
The situation remains volatile, with calls for restraint from France, the UN, and the EU. The Ethiopian government and the international community face pressure to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict and prevent further humanitarian crises.
Key points
- The conflict has led to an internet blackout in northern Ethiopia.
- The TPLF has launched a series of attacks on local airports and neighboring states.
- The renewed fighting has drawn international attention and concern.
