Ghana's economy experienced a slowdown in the second quarter of 2026, with GDP growth easing to 6.0% year-on-year. This deceleration was attributed to weaker performance outside the oil sector, including a moderation in agriculture, gold production, and public services. Despite the softer numbers, analysts at IC Securities remain optimistic about the country's growth prospects.
According to IC Securities, the slowdown in growth is likely temporary, with a rebound expected in the second half of 2026. The firm has maintained its full-year 2026 growth forecast at 6.4%, with a margin of 0.5 percentage points either way. This projection is driven by expectations of increased activity in the oil and ICT sectors. New wells that came on stream in July and August 2026 are expected to boost oil production.
The ICT sub-sector has been a standout performer in Ghana's economy, with rapid expansion continuing into the second quarter. IC Securities expects this trend to persist, with the sector remaining a key anchor for growth. Other areas that are expected to provide additional support in the coming months include transport and storage, financial and insurance activities, and trade.
In terms of sectoral performance, services remained Ghana's largest growth engine, accelerating to 8.0% year-on-year in the second quarter. The sector accounted for 57.6% of overall growth in the quarter, with ICT extending its rapid expansion to 30.9% year-on-year. Industry growth, however, eased sharply to 4.3% year-on-year from 6.9% in the first quarter.
The mining and quarrying sector experienced a sharp slowdown, growing just 2.6% year-on-year compared with 10.7% in the first quarter. Agriculture also slowed, growing 3.9% year-on-year compared with 7.1% a year earlier. This was largely due to a deep contraction in fishing, which has now shrunk for three consecutive quarters.
Looking ahead, IC Securities expects a lift in economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by the usual boost in household spending that comes with the Christmas and yuletide season. The firm also expects the cocoa harvest to provide a boost to economic activity in the third quarter. Government efforts to secure domestic financing for cocoa purchases and improve financing arrangements for the 2026/27 crop season are also expected to support the sector.
The GDP growth figures have significant implications for Ghanaians, with a stronger ICT and services sector potentially leading to more employment opportunities in tech-related fields. A rebound in oil output from Tullow's new wells could also support government revenue and the cedi's stability. The figures come as Ghana continues to navigate its broader fiscal recovery, with ongoing pressure on domestic borrowing.
Key points
- IC Securities expects growth to rebound in H2 2026 driven by new oil wells and a booming ICT sector.
- Ghana's GDP growth slowed to 6.0% in Q2 2026, but analysts expect a rebound in H2.
- The ICT sub-sector has been a standout performer in Ghana's economy, with rapid expansion continuing into the second quarter.
