Ghana's failure to meet its 2025 non-oil tax revenue target by 4.1 percent has been attributed to a broken fiscal contract between the state and citizens. Professor Abdallah Ali-Nakyea, a tax law and policy expert at the University of Ghana School of Law, stated that the shortfall is not merely an administrative miss but a symptom of a deeper crisis. He made these remarks at the second Transparency International Ghana (TI Ghana) Integrity Dialogue Series.
Despite non-oil tax revenue rising from 7.8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 8.7 percent in 2025, it still fell short of the 9.1 percent target set in the 2026 Budget Statement. Overall tax-to-GDP improved from 12.3 percent to 14.5 percent between 2024 and 2025. However, Ghana's tax-to-GDP ratio trails the Sub-Saharan African average of 16-17 percent and the country's own Medium-Term Revenue Strategy target of 18-20 percent by 2027.
The Integrity Dialogue Series, themed “Bridging Ghana’s Tax Revenue Gaps: A call for voluntary tax compliance, an accountable and fair tax system,” aimed to address systemic corruption and strengthen public accountability. The series is part of TI Ghana's Governance and Integrity Policy Dialogue Series (GIPDS), which seeks to promote integrity, transparency, and accountability in Ghana's governance systems.
Professor Ali-Nakyea emphasized that domestic revenue mobilisation is the most sustainable foundation for development financing. He cited a study by Luttmer and Singhal (2014) and noted that Ghana's tax revenue gap reflects how much economic activity never enters the tax net and how much owed is negotiated, evaded, or lost before it reaches the Consolidated Fund.
The professor linked voluntary compliance directly to public trust, referencing Afrobarometer data showing that lower perceived corruption increases tax morale by 4.6 percent. He warned that Ghana's Corruption Perceptions Index drop to 42/100 in 2024 has a direct negative effect on willingness to pay tax. He commended the government's shift in the 2026 Budget, including the removal of the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy and decoupling of GETFund and NHIL.
Mrs. Mary Awelana Addah, TI-Ghana Executive Director, stated that the GIPDS is a demonstration of the commitment of anti-corruption bodies to promote integrity and accountability. She stressed that corruption, procurement fraud, and weak enforcement continue to cost the state billions in lost revenue each year. The dialogue series aims to move from diagnosis to action and promote evidence-based contributions to enhance the credibility and influence of TI Ghana’s advocacy.
The year-long programme will combine routine policy roundtables and virtual meetings, each focused on a high-risk sector. The GIPDS serves as a platform for rigorous, evidence-based discussions to translate governance research, policy ideas, and analysis into actionable reform proposals. The expected outcomes include a more informed membership and stronger interaction with governance experts.
Key points
- Professor Abdallah Ali-Nakyea warns that Ghana's 4.1% revenue shortfall exposes a deeper crisis of trust between the state and citizens.
- The shortfall reflects how much economic activity never enters the tax net and how much owed is negotiated, evaded, or lost before it reaches the Consolidated Fund.
- The Integrity Dialogue Series aims to promote integrity, transparency, and accountability in Ghana's governance systems.
