The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has confirmed the development of a very strong El Niño event, warning of significant climate impacts on the country. According to a technical brief released by GMet, the tropical Pacific Ocean is experiencing a strong and still intensifying El Niño event, with an approximate 96 per cent chance that the November 2026 to January 2027 index reaches or exceeds the threshold. This event is expected to persist into early 2027, peaking between October 2026 and January 2027.
Ghana's experience of past El Niño episodes, particularly the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, and the moderate 2023/24 event, shows the country's vulnerability to rainfall variability and associated impacts on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation, and public health. However, GMet stressed that El Niño increases the likelihood of certain climate anomalies but does not produce uniform conditions across Ghana, and its influence depends strongly on the state of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
GMet's observations and seasonal forecasts for 2026 have already highlighted differences in weather patterns across the country. Exceptionally heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding in parts of southern Ghana in June, while prolonged dry spells subsequently affected farming activities in parts of northern Ghana. The updated seasonal outlooks indicate predominantly normal-to-below-normal rainfall across much of the country for the remainder of 2026, with above-normal rainfall expected in some areas, alongside warmer-than-average temperatures.
The agency warned that from November 2026 to April 2027, the principal risks are a hotter and drier dry season in many areas, bushfires, water stress, and dust, with heat stress likely to peak between February and April 2027, especially in the north. The 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain in both directions: late and weak rains are possible if El Niño decays slowly, while above-normal northern rainfall, flooding, and Volta spillage become more likely if La Niña develops by mid-2027.
Regarding energy, GMet noted that hydropower generation through the 2026/27 dry season depends mainly on water already stored in Lake Volta. The El Niño-sensitive period is the 2027 inflow season, which will determine generation in 2028. The agency emphasised the need for continuous climate monitoring, regular forecast updates, strengthened impact-based early warning, and coordinated sectoral preparedness.
The technical brief identifies rain-fed agriculture, cocoa, dry-season public health, Volta basin water management, and hydropower as the sectors most exposed. To mitigate the risks, GMet has recommended the activation of a National El Niño Preparedness Task Force, the strengthening of real-time monitoring of Volta Lake levels, pre-positioning of drought-tolerant seeds, heat-health action plans, and a coordinated national public-awareness campaign to manage public expectations and direct citizens to authoritative sources of information.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can significantly alter weather patterns around the world, including in Ghana. For Ghana, El Niño is not a direct forecast of disaster, but rather a shift in the probability of certain weather outcomes. Its impact is complex and depends on how it interacts with other systems like the West African Monsoon and Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
Key points
- El Niño event is expected to persist into early 2027, peaking between October 2026 and January 2027.
- Ghana is vulnerable to rainfall variability and associated impacts on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation, and public health.
- The agency has recommended the activation of a National El Niño Preparedness Task Force to mitigate the risks.
