Germany is currently facing a profound political crisis that contradicts its usual ethos of stability. The crisis began with a weak election victory in May 2025, where the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, won only 28.6% of the national vote. This poor performance led to a Grand Coalition government with the centre-left Social Democratic Party. The alliance has proven to be clumsy and divided, contributing to the country's ongoing turmoil.
The crisis was exacerbated by Germany's involvement in the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, which led to a cutoff of cheap Russian gas and subsequently caused severe economic stagnation and massive layoffs. The country's unemployment rate soared, and ordinary citizens grew uncertain about their financial futures. Chancellor Merz's unpopularity further worsened the situation, with his approval ratings declining to a historic low of 13%.
The CDU suffered a significant blow in the September 2026 elections, with the radical far-right Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany) party winning huge victories in the east and Die Linke (The Left) winning in Berlin. The CDU was even kicked out of the state parliament entirely, a development never seen before since the end of World War II. Merz is now facing pressure to resign, despite attempts by his allies to protect him.
The crisis in Germany may have a direct impact on its foreign policy, particularly its relationship with African countries. One of Germany's primary vehicles for soft power diplomacy across the continent is the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), an independent organisation tied to the CDU. The KAS's funding and financial stability are directly affected by the CDU's influence and size in the parliament.
As a result of the CDU's internal weaknesses, KAS risks losing a significant chunk of its baseline federal budget if the CDU loses in the next federal election. This will have direct implications for the funding KAS has been making towards democracy, civil society activities, and rule of law projects in its African regional programs. Uganda is one of the countries where KAS has deep and old partnerships.
Chancellor Merz has attempted to appease conservative voters by linking development aid directly to migration management, but this policy shift has not been successful. Other countries, such as China, India, Turkey, and some Gulf States, are already filling the development finance gaps that Western countries had previously leveraged.
Despite the challenges, Germany remains a development partner that Africa needs. It is not in Africa's interest to experience the effects of hollowed-out external partnerships when Germany starts prioritising economic stabilisation and industrial subsidies at home. The ongoing crisis in Germany highlights the need for Africa to diversify its partnerships and not rely heavily on any one country.
Key points
- Germany's political crisis may have a domino effect on its foreign policy, particularly its relationship with African countries.
- The crisis may impact the funding of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), which has deep partnerships with countries like Uganda.
- Germany remains a crucial development partner for Africa, despite its current challenges.
